Thank you very much. Thank you for inviting me. Bore da. I'm not a Welsh speaker, but I will do my best to use the translation, if necessary.
My involvement was to chair the review. It was the first four-year review of the agricultural pollution regulations. As such, I think I'd first like to say, as part of the scene setting, just a little bit about what those agricultural pollutants are. Just to say, I've worked in agricultural research and in the relationship between agricultural research and policy and practice for most of my career, in different roles, particularly around agricultural nutrients and fertilisers.
The key agricultural pollutants are the nitrates and the phosphates. One of the things that I think is really worth thinking about as part of the scene setting is the rather ironic situation where these nitrates and phosphates are pollutants when they enter the water courses, but in farmers' hands, when used effectively, they are the most valuable nutrients. They are fertilisers. Not only that, the value has increased significantly over recent years. In fact, since the conflict in the Gulf, they have increased 20 per cent in six months. We're talking about fertilisers that have a high cost, up to £500 a tonne for nitrates and £600, £700 a tonne for phosphates. They're not of insignificant value. It's very ironic that they become pollutants when they are lost from the system.
It's also worth saying that they enter the watercourses in different ways: as point source—so if you have an overflow from a slurry tank, they enter—and as diffuse pollution. This means that you need to track them in slightly different ways. They're actually very difficult, particularly diffuse pollution, which might enter watercourses across a very wide area—they're difficult to monitor.
My role was to work with the Welsh Government team, who were absolutely fantastic, I have to say, in terms of supporting me in the review. We had six months, so we had a very short time frame in which to do it, but we needed to look to see how effective the regulations had been during those four years.
I think the other point to make about those pollutants is that any change in practice can take a very long time before you see the evidence in the water pollution levels. So, although the first thing that we did was to really look at the data—we wanted to see what data Natural Resources Wales had collected, data from other sources, and review that to see whether the regulations had had any impact on the levels of water pollution—we didn't find any clear evidence to show that the regulations over the four years had changed levels of water pollution in either rivers or in the marine environment. But that is not a surprise. Even if the regulations were working optimally, one might have found it difficult at this stage, partly because things take time before they actually appear as change in the water environment, but also because some of the key regulations were implemented in a phased fashion.
So, whilst we looked at the data, and the data showed that we were still in quite a difficult situation with regard to the pollutants in the water, with significant numbers, over 60 per cent, of the special areas of conservation, the rivers, in a critical state, we knew that we must continue with a regulatory approach, but it was very difficult to say that, actually, at this stage, from the data, it was working.