, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
I've got a very small question, Chair, if I may.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
And, obviously, then, if inflation doesn't radically drop, you've got that other balance. Okay, thank you, Chair.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
Okay. And then, finally from me, if I may, Chair, in regard to your assumptions at the beginning of the session, which has predicated your positioning around this, do you come up with a range of high-end, 'This is what we think the top probability is', and…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
Okay, thank you. And then, finally from me: can you explain how you are currently modelling the differences between Welsh and UK tax bases in your forecasts for Welsh rates of income tax?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
So, just for information, because this is not an area of my expertise, you're updating them how regularly, and how often, then, are you updating your modelling? Because we've already talked about the mass volatility; we've not even mentioned issues around…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
And where do those views come from, substantively?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
Yes. Well, how are you basing your assumptions, in terms of what you decide is going to be the basis and the premise of your forecasting?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
Okay, thank you. I touched upon this earlier, but can you summarise, then, the potential or the risk involved with modelling your Welsh rates of income tax forecasts? What impact, then, does that already-discussed uncertainty—especially around growth and…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
You revise that revenue.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
So, therefore, the revenue downturn, in a sense, which has been affected here, is an average £55 million less. So, how do you, after that explanation, clarify why that was the case?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
Thank you, Chair. So, in using the Welsh rates of income tax outturn data, modelling your forecast, how does it enable you to refine your model?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 5
I was going to include it in my line of questioning, but I'm just interested in this premise around inflation being much, much lower very shortly. Combined with all of the other assumptions that you've made, how solid do you think your modelling is, compared…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 4
I won't pursue it. Victoria, have you got anything to say about the more general comments that I've made?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 4
I don't disagree with any of that at all. Practicably, if you've got a fire raging in the corner and one behind you and one behind you, where do you find the transformational money needed to transform systems, wholesale? I mean, that's what I never get to the…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 4
Thank you. Citizens Advice: in regard, then, to the crisis support—. You've almost answered this already, with double the amount of clients coming forward. It's almost a daft question: are you seeing a difference in the groups of people accessing? Do you have…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 4
In regard to the missing middle, as I put it, in terms of inequality, you've mentioned childcare and the transformational impact that real investment would have in childcare in terms of tackling all of the things that we were talking about earlier. That's…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 4
Thank you. Some very interesting comments from everyone. Pre COVID, pre Brexit, we didn't have enough to meet the collective needs of Wales, and that's exactly where Welsh Government is now—we don't have enough to meet the collective needs. I can't list all…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 3
Briefly, do you feel that Welsh Government is engaging with those who are suffering the most from this so-called cost-of-living crisis?
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 3
Okay. Okay, thank you. That’s very comprehensive and I’m just conscious of the time, and the Chair is looking at me with his eagle eyes. Just very briefly, there were three main policy areas that you've mentioned, and there was obviously the low-carbon…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 3
Thank you, Chair. Obviously, your paper mentions that COVID has impacted the poorest the most, and there's a recognition that the funding settlement is not enough to meet the collective pressures, obviously, from what you've just said. So, does this budget…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 2
If I can just drill down on that, very briefly, what you're saying, then, is they're not getting it in their block grant adjustment, but they have chosen to actually enhance their offer, a little bit like our council tax reduction scheme, et cetera. I'd be…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 2
I think, if we can, I'm going to go to the final question: the risks and benefits, then, in regard to devolving social security benefits to Wales.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 2
Guto.
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 2
I was just looking briefly at profits for companies such as Costa and Tesco. So, this question is: how will the non-domestic support announced in this budget benefit businesses and landlords in the short to medium term? Secondarily, can those policies be…
, Finance Committee
Scrutiny of the Welsh Government Draft Budget 2023-24: Evidence session 2
I'll try and make the questions more brief. In regard to, though, the amount of higher rate/additional rate taxpayers in Wales, they are very, very small, aren't they, in terms of the additionality that would actually bring forth. So, in regard—. This is a…
