Just a little bit, Carolyn, if that's okay. The work that we’ve done across the board suggests that the gap in energy bills across all of our partners—and I mentioned just under 500 pools—if we just look at local authority or local government leisure facilities alone, the estimated gap is between £26 million and £32 million. So, that’s the increase compared to this time last year. In fact, I’d go further than Matt and say that energy costs are three to five times, in some cases, what they were before. I’d go a little bit further on that.
So, we think those 10, actually—there is a correlation between the earlier questions—those 10 leisure trusts, the smallish leisure trusts, where they have better connectivity with the community, et cetera, et cetera, they actually are the most fragile, the most vulnerable. Community Leisure UK, our colleagues there estimate that 70 per cent of those leisure trusts face imminent danger over the next six to 12 months. Some of that is really, really close to us. So, between £26 million and £32 million, just to average that off—whatever—£30 million is the gap. We’ve done a bit of work, and it’s not scientific. We did a bit of work, this is literally picking up the phones to development officers, speaking to all of our contacts across our partners, just sense-checking, things like the recent Welsh Government settlement will have helped ease that £30 million somewhat, because the increased settlement across local authorities will be fed into the system, obviously, through local authorities, and will go to leisure facilities, and we think that might satisfy maybe a third of that.
Then there are other—. There are five different energy models, I’ll just add. There are five energy models in terms of people who have hedged and bought energy, and don’t have an issue; people who do have an issue; operators who foot their own bills; operators who don’t foot their own bills, the local authority has that, and it’s netted off against the wider procurement piece. So, there are five different models at play here, but in essence, we think that the recent settlement may have eased some of that, and reserves across the local authorities may have eased other parts of that, but there still could be £10 million, £12 million of a gap that somebody has to fix over the next 12 months—somebody, somewhere.
And if we look at recent announcements from England, the £63 million that has gone into servicing leisure centres and pools and helping support that, which, albeit, is very welcome in England, and if you look at the consequential, they apply a similar Barnett formula, it might equate to £3 million. We’ve got our ear close to the ground, don’t we, Matt, about what’s coming down the track? And that’s for others to decide. But if there was a figure of £3 million put into that, and I’ve just outlined a best-case gap of £10 million or £12 million, you can kind of see—. And the terminology that colleagues of mine used last week was, ‘This is a lifeline, not a life-saver’, which rings very true, actually.