Right, I thought this question might be coming. It's actually a slightly long-winded answer, I'm afraid, on this one. I'm aware that the Welsh economy Minister has been saying that Wales has been shortchanged, but I'm also aware that the UK Government says it's fully replacing the EU funds. So, there are two very different views there. Now, the truth is that both are correct, because they're talking about rather different things. Let's take the UK Government position first. Where the UK Government is absolutely correct is that, by the time that you get to financial year 2024-25, which is when all of the legacy EU funding has dropped out of the frame.—. I mean, we're still spending large amounts of EU funding at the moment; we can do up to the end of 2023, at the end of this year. By the time you get to the next financial year, the amount that the UK Government is putting into the shared prosperity fund does pretty much match what the EU funds were previously worth, with a tweak for inflation.
Now, the annual figure there that the UK Government is putting in in 2024-25, across the UK as a whole, is £1.5 billion a year. And I have to confess that that was a figure that I planted with the Treasury back in 2019. I did the calculations of what would be necessary to replace the European regional development fund and the European social fund. And I came up with that figure: £1.5 billion a year. That was the figure that was set in 2021 in the spending review. Because of the inflation that's happened just recently, of course, which none of us at that point in time anticipated, in real terms even £1.5 billion is a little bit of a reduction now. But when the figure was set, it did appear to be replacing the European funding in full. So, we've got a situation at present, and until the end of this year, where there's still a lot of European money being spent, but it's falling away. The SPF is ramping up, and the SPF does get to the level, in real terms, of roughly what the European funds originally were.
So, in that sense, the UK Government's correct. But the Welsh economy Minister is also correct. Because if we had stayed in the European Union, then, at this stage, we would have had a financial commitment that is a great deal more than the financial commitment that has come from the UK Government. The UK Government has put £2.6 billion on the table for the UK as a whole for three financial years—as I say, ramping up to the £1.5 billion in the final financial year. If we had stayed as an EU member, then we probably, in the UK as a whole, would have had an allocation of around about £10.5 billion, over a seven-year period. So, we'd be in a position now to begin to commit money that would be getting spent, not just in the next financial year, but right the way through to 2027.
It's a very odd situation to be in, to say that both parties are right in all of this, but they are, because they're looking at rather different things. One's looking at actual spending in financial years, and, in that sense, the UK Government is correct; the Welsh Government is looking at financial commitments, which is a different measure, and Vaughan Gething is correct on that front.