Climate Change, Environment, and Infrastructure Committee

Croeso nôl i'r pwyllgor. Dŷn ni'n symud at y trydydd eitem ar ein hagenda ni, sef clywed tystiolaeth ar deithio ar fysiau a rheilffyrdd yng Nghymru. Hon fydd yr ail sesiwn dystiolaeth i ni heddiw, yr ail banel o dystion yn cynrychioli grwpiau buddiannau teithwyr a chyrff anllywodraethol. Gwnaf i ofyn i'r tystion gyflwyno eu hunain. Gwnawn ni gychwyn gyda Joe.

Hello. I'm Joe Rossiter. I'm the policy and external affairs manager for Sustrans Cymru, but I'm here to represent Transform Cymru, which is a coalition of lots of transport organisations, all about creating a sustainable, accessible and affordable transport system for the people of Wales.

Diolch. David.

Hello. I'm David Beer. I'm senior manager for Wales at Transport Focus, the national watchdog. Our role is to protect and promote the interests of users.

Diolch yn fawr. And Silviya.

Hello. I'm Silviya Barrett. I'm director of policy and research at the Campaign for Better Transport. We are a national charity operating in England and Wales and promote all sustainable modes, from public transport, walking and cycling to shared mobility.

Grêt. Diolch yn fawr iawn i'r tri ohonoch chi. Awn ni'n syth i gwestiynau, felly, a gwnaf i wahodd Janet Finch-Saunders i ofyn y cwestiwn cyntaf.

Thank you. With passenger numbers down 30 per cent to 35 per cent from peak pre-pandemic levels, is this shift due to just the pandemic, or is it due to concerns relating to the use of public transport, or is it down to changing consumer behaviours? Has any work been done, any data collected? Do we know whether it is—? Because we know there were problems before the pandemic, which were, obviously, compounded by the pandemic, but we also know now there's been a systematic shift in people's behaviour. Also, there are concerns about the reliability of public transport in Wales. So, which one of those three is—? In order of priorities, what are they?

Who wants to respond first? David.

You've certainly outlined the key causes. I think that people's understanding of transport has changed. We did some research, for example, with concessionary pass holders, and there is definitely a sense in which they are using transport less frequently. That may be because they don't have the journeys to make, potentially. For example, medical appointments have lessened. The other thing as well is that people are working from home more, so, again, the commuting hasn't bounced back. In terms of the national picture, the figures show that rail, for example, is around about 75 per cent of what it was pre COVID, buses slightly more at around 80 per cent to 90 per cent overall, but individually, we're finding that leisure travel has bounced back probably to much greater than pre-COVID levels, and that is a good news story, but commuting and business travel hasn't. I think the main reasons for that are because people have changed the way in which they use transport. The message went out very clearly, particularly from Westminster, at the beginning of the pandemic, that transport wasn't safe, and that really resonated with people. There's a hump in the road to get over to persuade people that it is safe and it is there for people to use. I think that has left a resonance with people. But also, transport use is changing, and I think that transport provision has to change to move with the times with more leisure travel and less business and commuting.

Okay, and—

Sorry, Janet, before you move on, I'll invite any other member of the panel who wants to come in. But can I just ask—? You mentioned the hump in the road, David—is there enough being done at the moment, do you think, to help to get over that hump?

I don't think there is, to be honest. Transport for Wales, for example, has just put out a new campaign to return to transport, 'The real social network', and I think there's a real resonance. It's fresh, it's a good idea, and I think that is starting to get the message out there. But I think there's a lot more that can be done and should be done.

Okay. Thank you. Silviya wanted to come in as well, and then we'll come back to you then, Janet.

Thank you. Just to add to what David already said, we were worried at the beginning of the pandemic about the strength of the messaging for people to avoid public transport. And, obviously, that has really stuck and led to persistent nervousness among people in terms of virus transmission. What we're saying to central Government and local government is to be much more explicit to people that public transport is safe and it's desirable to use for environmental reasons as well. So, we were pleased to see Transport for Wales launch the 'real social network' campaign, and we have been calling for similar work from central Government. We at the Campaign for Better Transport realised very early on that a campaign like that would be necessary, so in May 2021 we launched 'The way forward is public transport', which basically conveyed the message that public transport should be made to feel safer and more attractive for people coming back post pandemic. But a big part of that is just investing back in the basics—so, affordability and connectivity. Cost is a big barrier. According to data, between 1997 and 2020, the cost of owning and using a motor vehicle has increased by just 58 percent, whereas rail fares increased by 138 per cent and bus fares almost doubled, up by 192 per cent. So, that price difference shows a really big issue for people.

It is indeed, and I'm sure we'll be coming back to that later on. Thank you. Back to you, Janet.

[Inaudible.]—behind me; I don't know what it is. Sorry. With the climate emergency declared by the Senedd, addressing climate change is now at the top of all of our political agendas. It's vital that public transportation is safe, clean, reliable and that it decarbonises Wales. However, Welsh Government, I believe, has made none or maybe a little progress in rolling this out across the public transport network in Wales. I don't believe that they're short of money or market options for vehicles to be integrated, because there's some good work going on. Why is Transport for Wales taking so long to address this issue, and when can we start to see the majority of trains and buses running on electric and hybrid engines?

Who's going to tackle that one?

It's probably not one for me, if others have got—.

It's a question for Transport for Wales, really, isn't it, in a sense. But what's you're perception of where we are and where we should be?

From a passenger perspective, if I can put that down first, I think the propulsion method is not one that is hitting passengers where they're thinking at the moment. I think that the point that's just been made about going back to basics is something that's more uppermost in passengers' minds. And, certainly, the message to get out, in terms of encouraging modal shift, hasn't really resonated. We did some work on sustainability, and we found that that isn't a message that people are thinking first when they're thinking about how to make their journey. They're looking at things like cost and convenience far more than that. Yes, it's a good point about the propulsion method and changing to electric vehicles and new trains. We know that they've been trailed for a couple of years now—the new trains for the Transport for Wales fleet. They will be coming. They're starting to be tested now. From the end of the year, we will start to see those. But, yes, they've been a long time in terms of getting those in place.

On the bus side of things, yes, the people with greater resources, deeper pockets, are starting to bring in electric vehicles, and they're looking at hydrogen, but I think, certainly when listening to colleagues from the bus industry, they are looking at what should their investment be in. So, is the long-term investment—? Because it costs an awful lot of money for an electric bus. You're talking £0.25 million for those sorts of things. And if you're looking at hydrogen, you've then got to look at the method of topping those up, fuelling them, and the depots need to have that capability as well. So, there's an awful lot of investment potential, and when you've got proposals for a big change like franchising on the table, is that something that the bus industry is incentivised to look at now, or is that something that they'd prefer to leave to somebody like Welsh Government to think about?

Okay. Silviya.

Just briefly, we've done a lot of work on the transition to zero-emission buses, for example, but more focused on central Government, and I know that progress on that has been slow. I cannot comment on specific progress in Wales, but generally, as David said, the big barrier is the costs of zero-emission buses, and given that the pandemic has really affected passenger numbers, and therefore revenue for operators, this transition requires a lot of subsidy from Government. The Department for Transport has had two rounds of funds for the ZEBRAs—zero emission bus regional areas funding, I believe it's called. But again, that's been allocated on a competitive basis, so some authorities will benefit, others will not. So, it's about having that certainty of subsidy to invest in zero-emission vehicles and in the infrastructure that goes with them. It's a similar issue on the trains. Electrification has been a very slow process to progress, and that's just across the board, not only in Wales. So, again, it comes down to the amount of subsidy required to achieve that, and where electrification is not possible, we could be looking at hydrogen trains or battery electric, but again, it's a long process that needs investment.

Thank you so much for that. We'll move on now, then, to Joyce.

Good afternoon, everybody. It has already been alluded to by David that the purpose of public transport is changing—in other words, the way people access it. Have you done any assessment of the level of uncertainty that that is causing around demand for both bus and rail travel?

Yes, we have. During the pandemic particularly, we've changed the way in which we have engaged with people that are travelling, and our weekly research has shown that, yes, there is that level of uncertainty, but there's also that shift. People who are travelling by rail, for example, really do feel safe, and those who are travelling by bus slightly less so, but the experience is there that people are feeling safe.

I think where the uncertainty lies is a perception gap. Those people who have yet to return to transport, or have yet to try it out again, are still uncertain about how it will provide for their safety needs as well as the reliability and all of the other basics, and the journey needs that they have. I think that people have got used to travelling in other ways. It has been a lot easier to jump in the car. That's their own little private space. It's quick, it's easy for them to use, but with the cost of fuel as it is, it's prompting people to look back to public transport. So, public transport has to be there with an attractive network, and the key barriers that people perceive are cost, convenience and complexity. And those three things have to be addressed to give an attractive network that's going to attract people to make that modal shift and to give them the certainty that public transport will work for them.

I think also we need to make sure that we're taking the time to acknowledge that these are potentially long-term shifts in transport mode usage. We've also seen things that are potentially more promising in terms of a lower degree of car ownership and lower car miles travelled due to more people working at home, more people not going in the car for leisure purposes as well, because the rise of e-commerce means that people aren't necessarily needing to go to the shops and go in their vehicle for that. But we've also seen quite positive steps in terms of lots of people walking, and the levels of people walking for meaningful journeys has also risen quite considerably. I would point you to some new research that was recently done by CREDS, the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, which, whilst it's a UK-wide study, looks at the long train of behavioural change within that context. So, I would look at that. But also acknowledging that this is a moment for change, and it's an opportunity for us to embrace that change. There's the potential that we go back to a return to normal, where we're dominated by private car usage, but there are some changes that are promising with regard to people getting out of cars, going onto public transport or walking and cycling as well as part of their journey. So, it is a real opportunity as well, I think.

Okay. Thank you very much. Joyce, did you want to come back?

I just want to explore that slightly further. Whilst there is obviously change that's happening, and you mentioned e-commerce—I was going to mention it, but you've mentioned it—there are still people who will still want to travel for other reasons. How do we cater for those people? And I'm talking here particularly about isolation, and people feeling the need to travel to maybe a town centre or whatever, just simply so that they can see someone else. I represent a rural area, so I'm quite mindful of people wanting to get out of their house, and the backfill of that is, if they can't do it, that isolation in and of itself causes social problems but also health implications for those individuals. Has anybody got anything to offer? If not, that's fair enough.

I would just agree with you, but also recognise that we've seen rail and bus services reduced and services not coming back after the pandemic, and that has a significant impact on rural communities specifically. We know that public transport services have a really important role to play in enabling access to services and employment for rural communities, so I think it's correct to highlight that the impact on rural communities is one that we need to think through and we need to make sure that those transport options that are public transport options are available for people in rural Wales.

Thank you, Joe. And Silviya as well.

Just to add a quick point to that and to quantify the bus cuts that have happened in Wales. According to data from the Department for Transport, bus services in Wales, as measured by vehicle kilometres, declined by 45 per cent in the 10 years between 2011/12 and 2020/21, but in that last year, between March 2020 and March 2021, which was the first year of the pandemic, just in this one year, the cuts were 36 per cent. So, that's when the majority of the cuts happened. Obviously, now, operators are being encouraged to adjust some of its provision to a new normal. So, if we cut services further, it will just lead to basically that vicious circle of decline again and people not being able to return to buses because they're not going to where they need them to be, they're not attractive enough, and it would just lead to growing isolation and people missing out on opportunities.

Public transport is obviously important to people that don't have access to private cars, but, with the modal shift imperative of climate change, obviously we want more people to be using public transport than private cars. So, it's very important that that provision remains. And that's why I think 'The real social network' campaign was so brilliant. It was very emotive when I first watched it, and it's liberating for people to be able to see relatives and friends in person again, but that obviously needs to be underpinned by much-improved provision, and the reprioritising of greener public transport as opposed to private vehicles.

Excellent. Okay. Thank you so much. Huw.

Thank you, Chair. I loved those points by Silviya there on what we need to do, but can I ask the panel—you don't all need to answer this—but if, and it is an if, we achieve the modal shift targets that the Welsh Government has, will those be enough to get the necessary reductions in greenhouse gases that we want to see, if we hit those targets?

Who wants to respond to that first?

Shall I go first?

Yes please, Sylviya.

So, the first thing to say is that modal shift is very, very important in order to achieve the net-zero pathways that the Government has set. Central Government has focused very heavily on electrification and vehicle electrification in order to meet those targets, but it's widely recognised by the Climate Change Committee and independent research that has been done that modal shift or reduction in demand to the tune of 20 to 25 per cent overall would also be needed, in addition to vehicle electrification to meet those targets. The Welsh Government and the Scottish Government are the only ones, so it's nothing like the modal shift targets set in England or by central Government at all. So, it's very encouraging and leading in that sense—the target to reach 45 per cent of journeys by public transport, walking and cycling by 2040, up from 32 per cent at the moment, and also to reduce traffic per capita by 10 per cent. There isn't an equivalent of that in England. So, I think that in itself is leading and progressive.

I haven't done an analysis of whether that would be enough in order to reach overall targets, because it's in relation to the national pathways, but just achieving that would be ambitious and it would be leading in that sense. And, yes, obviously, we need to—. I'm not sure whether we're coming to how to achieve that in a further question, or whether I need to talk about this now, but I'm happy to.

No, we'll probably come to that but, Sylviya, thank you. That's an encouraging response. Do any other panelists—? Have you crunched the numbers to see whether doing that modal shift and the demand reduction will get us to where we need to be on greenhouse gas emissions?

I would say we haven't crunched the numbers for Transform Cymru. I think it's a very important piece of work to do; it's also a very complex piece of work to do, to see whether those ambitious targets are in line with where we need to go. The 'if' in your initial question was doing quite a lot of heavy lifting. We know that we're not hitting the targets that we need to and that, historically, transport accounts for 17 per cent of Welsh emissions, and that cars represent 55 per cent of all transport emissions. But since 1990, we've only see them fall by 6.3 per cent, and we know that that needs a lot of action and it needs a lot of addressing; 2040 is a long way away, but we need to see that action taken now to push us in the right direction, because, historically, the transport sector is falling far behind other sectors in terms of decarbonisation, whether that's agriculture or business or other sectors. Urgent action is required now, and transport's role needs to be recognised now as well to make sure that we're making that change.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you. There we are. Okay, thank you so much. We'll move on to Delyth, then.

Diolch. It's quite a broad thematic question from me. How accessible and how inclusive do you think that public transport is in Wales, particularly in the context of the scale of transport poverty? The University of South Wales has suggested from its research that access to services by bus has declined most in the areas that face the most deprivation. So, in the context of that, and, of course, the cost-of-living crisis, how accessible is public transport in Wales, and how inclusive do you think that that is? I'm very aware that this is a very large and very broad question.

David.

Yes, thank you. Very broad, indeed, I agree. I think there are three aspects to it: accessibility, inclusion and the cost, the value-for-money side of it. In terms of accessibility, the persons of restricted mobility regulations have specified an improvement in the physical access of trains and buses, and that's been a real boon. I think that's been a good news story. Although, you do need aspects like ramps to actually be used and the training to be there for the staff to use them, which isn't always the case, so there's more work to be done on that front.

Passenger assist on rail, for example, has recently been improved to support booking up to two hours before people travel. Again, it remains to be seen how successful that is in terms of the experience, but new trains are being designed to have level access, so that kind of accessibility is being addressed. But there are also lots of issues to be addressed in terms of step-free access. So, you might be able to have level access onto the train, but have you got level access at the station and things like that?

Inclusion, which I think was the central part of the question you were asking—I think there are two sides to that. In terms of the reach of the network, our research shows that the second-highest priority for improving buses is for them to go to more places. So, you've got the reach of the network, the journey opportunities that people want to make, and more destinations covered by the network. But also it's time of day. For example, we're working with Transport for Wales to research the experience of the Fflecsi flexible bus pilots. The feedback from Newport, for example, is that it's given them a service for the first time in the evenings and Sundays. People are embarrassed, really, that somewhere the size of Newport doesn't have services in the evening and Sundays. And if that's true for Newport, how much more so for the more rural, outlying areas? So, there's a real opportunity here to set out an attractive and effective network to provide the journeys people want to make, but also at the times they want to travel. So, even if they can travel out, can they get back again? There's a real fear that people won't be able to do that, and that needs to be addressed to give people trust in the network.

On value for money, just very quickly, our research shows that, even before the current crisis, having better value-for-money tickets was already the second-highest priority for improvement, after punctuality, but the importance that passengers place on that priority is higher in Wales than it is in England and Scotland. So, I think that shows the picture as well. It's also an important priority on buses as well as rail, although not as pronounced on buses. I think it's also of higher importance for young people. If we're talking about bringing the next generation through, there's really got to be something done to encourage younger people. There are measures being taken at the moment to give free travel for younger people, and I think that's a real case of encouraging them to use it, but they will still, at a certain age, face that cliff face in terms of having to pay the adult fare, and the affordability of that needs to be underpinned to be able to bring the next generation through.

Silviya.

If I can add very quickly, we did research together with Local Trust on trust for connectivity in left-behind areas. This research was focused on England, so I don't have Welsh findings, but perhaps it's something that we can replicate in due time. What this showed was that left-behind communities and those that are already deprived and lack that social capital already, causing them to be left behind—86 per cent of them have worse transport connectivity than the England average. So, that basically shows that we're neglecting communities that are already deprived and we need to improve transport connectivity in those areas. So, that's coastal communities, those on the suburbs of large towns, those in more remote locations. If you want to level up the country, transport connectivity is important to target areas like that.

Joe, yes, did you want to come in as well?

Sustrans Cymru, in the last couple of weeks, launched a report on the very issues that you're talking about in terms of transport poverty. So, I'm really glad that you've asked a question about that, because I really want to see some time dedicated to that. The report found that, in many areas across Wales, more than half of households are spending over 10 per cent of their income on the cost of running a car, whether they have one or not. Whilst this is an imperfect metric for measuring transport poverty, what it says is that many people across Wales are experiencing transport poverty today. And as your question alluded to, it's making people have to make difficult choices around food, heating and transport. And transport feels—. In many of the conversations around this, it's the thing that's not mentioned around the squeeze on incomes.

And also, it's correct to say that it's predominantly more rural areas of Wales that are least able to access services necessary for day-to-day life, which is another consideration around transport poverty. And we also know that transport poverty is having the most severe impact on those who already face barriers, whether that's people with disabilities, whether that's older people. For example, half of rail stations in Wales are not fully accessible to disabled people, and 34 per cent have no wheelchair access either. So, this means that there are a number of people who are locked out of the transport system, and, in terms of actions on behalf of this, I'm glad that we're talking about it now, but also there need to be plans for making sure that any transport interventions that we make are aimed at alleviating transport poverty, which we know is a real issue, especially if the cost-of-living crisis is going to continue to hit over the medium term, which, unfortunately, it seems like that will be the case.

So, yes, I'm glad you asked the question, but it is worrying.

Before I invite Delyth to come back, can I just interject maybe? In the evidence we received in the previous session, there was a suggestion that there might sometimes be some unintended consequences to certain initiatives. The bus pass for older people was mentioned, and it was flagged up that there might be a risk, because it's seen as a guaranteed revenue, that there might be some sort of subconscious bias in terms of focusing on services that might be used by these people, as opposed to maybe providing services at times where people, younger people particularly, need to get to work or education or something like that. Is there anything that you've seen that suggests that that is happening, or is a risk in your view? I'm looking at you, David, but, Joe, anyone, really.

I think one of the risks is in terms of—. We mentioned earlier on the fact that people with concessionary passes are not necessarily returning to travel in as great a number. And I think one of the risks with that is that, particularly through a commercial lens, operators could look at their services and think, 'Well, the daytime services that would have been the provision for that aren't being used, so we'll start to cut those back.' I think there's a real risk that the services could be eroded, and more needs to be done to look at ensuring that that support is there, so that there isn't the need to look at that through that commercial lens, because erosion of those services—. It's very difficult to get them back once they've started to go, and I think that would be a detriment to the network.

Yes, okay. Fine. Thank you. Sorry, back to you, Delyth.

No, no, it's fine. In addition to what you've all said already, is there anything specific, anything in addition that's specific, that you think that either policy makers or transport operators should be doing to respond to and anticipate how the cost-of-living crisis is probably going to deepen and worsen in the coming months?

Again, I think it goes back to what we were saying about one of the key barriers being cost. One of the key things that could be done is to incentivise people to give transport a go, with maybe special ticket offers. And I think loyalty schemes are something that has come through our research again and again—people want to see that kind of thing to reward them for using transport. So, I think the cost aspect in terms of more flexible tickets—. Transport for Wales has got the multiflex ticket, which I think has been a really useful addition to the ticket range. But I think ticketing needs to be simplified, it needs to be made cheaper, and it needs to encourage people to give it a go, maybe with stories from other people. We did some work in the west Midlands for example, Give Bus a Go, and then we broadcast quite widely, in terms of people's experience, on social media and those sorts of things, and it encouraged other people to try it. Those sorts of things are actually quite valuable in terms of how loudly they speak to others.

Silviya.

Similar to what David said, I can point to the regional network initiative—'Give the train a try', I believe it is. So, it can work both ways, but, obviously, ticketing and promotions and reducing the cost of public transport is important, and many countries are contrasting the increasing cost of fuel, which Governments have little control over, with reductions in public transport—so, the likes of Ireland and Luxembourg, which have had free public transport fares for some time. Germany is introducing reductions in public transport fares. So, promoting that as an alternative to the costly use of private cars I think would be quite important, and obviously has additional benefits, as well as reducing the cost of travel to the public.

Thank you, Silviya. Joe.

Yes. I think, just broadly speaking, we know that this is an issue and we need a clear plan of action on addressing transport poverty that is targeted at those that most need it. And I think, at the moment, we don't sufficiently understand how our policy interventions impact those that most need it, whether that's people with disabilities or whether that's people in low-income households. And unless we analyse that, we don't know if the interventions we're making at the moment are having that impact that we want to have. So, I think that's an important aspect of it as well.

Thank you. Delyth.

I thank the three of you. Thank you. And then, finally from me, picking up that theme of behaviour change, and in the context of the need to decarbonise generally in the economy, the fact that we have some areas that in particular will see particularly or most prevalent low usage or low take-up of public transport, how do you think that policy makers and operators should be responding to shifting behaviours in that context? So, we've talked about it in terms of cost of living, but also, the need to decarbonise as well—it's a different focus, or it's a different strategy, is it? How do you think it would need to—? The nice differences that would need to be—. I mean 'nice' in its specific sense there.

Okay. Who wants to respond? Silviya.

Just more broadly, in terms of incentives and behaviour change and that modal shift to public transport that's required, it's broadly recognised that we need a mixture of carrots and sticks in order to get people to change their behaviour. The first thing, really, is to increase awareness among the general public, both of why that behavioural shift is required—so, the fact that public transport could be cheaper than the private car, as just mentioned, is one thing; the climate change imperative is another. Air pollution is also a big factor, but many people are still not aware of the significant, damaging health impacts that pollution can cause, and also how high air pollution can be in their local area. So, increasing that awareness, but also telling people what they can do themselves, because, sometimes, people might feel that their individual behaviour is not impactful enough—[Inaudible.]

Okay. Silviya's picture has frozen. I'm not sure whether she can hear us—it might just be a glitch. We'll see whether that can be rectified. Are we happy to move on to the next question? Or, Joe, did you want to add something first? [Interruption.] Oh, Silviya, sorry, you're back now—we lost you for a moment. Do you want to just repeat the final point that you made? Thank you.

So, explaining to people that their own behaviour has a role to play, so that everyone has a role to play in achieving that big change that we need, and also demonstrating to people how easy it can be to make a switch, through things like behaviour change programmes, workplace or university travel planning initiatives, can play a big role. But, in terms of the carrots, it's everything that we talked about in terms of making sure that public transport is attractive, but also the wider alternatives—so, shared mobility, car share, e-scooter hire—and offering mobility credits is another way to shift the dial away from affordability. So, when someone moves house, for example, the local authority can offer them a free bus pass for a limited amount of time, in order to try the local transport options. But we also need a bit of, obviously, political leadership at the local level for adjusting the pricing. So, for example, parking provision and parking costs are a big lever in this. So, reallocating some space away from parking, or having higher prices for residents' parking permits, might impact on how many cars a household has. So, it might deter people from buying a second car, for example.

Charging schemes, obviously, are very important. So, they both nudge people away from driving, if they can take public transport as an alternative, but they also have the benefit of raising revenue for investing locally in local schemes, such as public transport or cycling infrastructure. So, there are lots of things that can be done, both on the regional and national level, but also the local level.

Thank you. I'm glad you repeated that. There was a lot of good stuff there, actually. Joe.

I agree—there was a lot of good stuff. I would completely agree with the carrot and stick analogy. I think that's a really important way of thinking about it. We need to make it easier for people to travel on public transport and also walk, wheel and cycle. But, equally, we need to be clear that it needs to be more difficult for people to make those decisions that are lower down on the sustainable transport hierarchy, which is what the Welsh Government's perspective is.

But, linking it back to transport poverty, I would just say that cost is a huge factor. We've seen over the decades that the cost of driving a private car has been cheaper than using public transport, and, you know, ultimately, if we are to uphold the sustainable transport hierarchy, then we need to flip that on its head so that people are incentivised to make the most sustainable journeys that they possibly can.

And also, I would completely echo the calls for behavioural change. We've seen lots of important investment into infrastructure when it comes to—whether that's walking and cycling specifically—the links to public transport, because, as we know, people walk and cycle to their public transport and then walk and cycle out of the public transport. But also we need to see those comprehensive behavioural change programmes, because we need to win hearts and minds and get people to make those difficult decisions to take the most sustainable transport.

Just a very quick point—

Sorry, Silviya—sorry, Jenny wants to come in first and we'll come back to you.

[Inaudible.]—experience of street harassment. I've seen surveys done with students and young people in secondary school talking about harassment on the bus. So, I just wondered, as you're part of a coalition, whose responsibility is it to address feeling unsafe on the bus—

I'm not sure Jenny's microphone is working. She was just asking whose responsibility it is to address safety on buses for travellers.

I think it's incumbent on all of us, isn't it? It's a cultural change that needs to take place. I'm glad you mentioned it, because I think safety is something that people don't often talk about when they're talking about this, whether that's on public transport or whether that's travelling actively, and that is something that stops people from using public transport services and is all of our responsibility, but is also distinctly Government's responsibility, local government's responsibility, the service provider's responsibility. But also it's important that we talk about it, like you're talking about it today, to make sure that we're aware that safety is an important element of it as well. And it is something that we see that isn't—. Safety is a real barrier for people travelling actively or for going on public transport as well.

Particularly, surely, it's the service provider's responsibility and they can just stop the bus and say, 'We're not going on until this activity ceases.'

Yes.

Yes, okay. Thank you for that. Silviya, you wanted to pick up on something.

Yes, just briefly on the behaviours, the modal shift decisions—so, early prioritising of investment has also got a key role to play. That's why we welcomed the roads review that the Welsh Government implemented. So, investing in new roads capacity, it's widely recognised that that just makes road traffic much worse by induced demand—so, the more capacity there is, the more people travel. So, reducing that investment in new roads is important. And also the money that is saved in that—obviously, there's still money that needs to be invested in existing road infrastructure in terms of maintenance—that can then be reprioritised to make public transport cheaper and to invest in public transport connectivity. So, reprioritising those decisions, I think, is important.

Reducing vehicle speeds can also impact, both in terms of saving fuel consumption and reducing fuel consumption in the cost-of-living-crisis context, but also it has, immediately, carbon reduction impacts because it prevents the engine from working as hard. I believe that is the technical context behind that.

Thank you so much. Joyce, did you want to pick up on some of this area? I think we've already touched on some of it.

Yes, the only thing that hasn't been touched on is the road user charging policy that has been suggested and any views that you might have on that. But that's the only area that hasn't been touched on.

I think that is one of the tools that can certainly be applied, and it's probably going to be something that we will see more often. There are a number of places around Britain that are already looking at that. Manchester has probably been quite high profile in the news recently, with the Greater Manchester mayor having to go back to Westminster because his scheme would give a disadvantage to people to actually afford to pay for it, and would drive up the cost of businesses using transport, which is one of the risks of putting that into place.

I think, though, that, ultimately, there have to be sticks as well as carrots. So, yes, you've got to provide an attractive network as the pull factor, but you've also got to provide the push factor, to actually prompt people to think about—. Because otherwise, they get quite comfortable in what they're used to and they have to have a bit of a wake-up call as to, 'Well, what other choices are out there?' and to push them into looking at those.

So, I think road user charging is one of those things. Workplace car park charging is another one, and car parking in town and city centres is another one to look at in terms of giving people better public transport opportunities. So, for example, one of the road schemes that recently was looked at was to give better access to buses to Severn Tunnel Junction station, and that gives people another opportunity, rather than driving to the station, to actually give them an incentive.

But I think carrots and sticks have to go together. You've got to have the attractive network to pull people across, but you've also got to have the push factor that gives people that prompt to look in other directions.

Okay. And Silviya, then, just to conclude on this.

Just to add to that: so road user charging or road pricing is the sort of single most effective tool, I believe, to drive behaviour change. Firstly, because as David said, it makes people think about making the choices of how they travel, and making greener choices, and more sustainable choices, and secondly, because it enables authorities—[Inaudible.]—to borrow against or to use, to invest in the alternatives. So, it's really a two-pronged benefit, and there are ways to implement it, so there are many forms of it.

National road pricing for vehicle taxation, for example, which is something that central Government is considering, is very different from local charging, which authorities can implement for tackling air pollution and congestion and reaching net-zero imperatives. And both Governments need to act in order to enable that to happen. We've currently got a project that is considering how a national scheme can integrate with local schemes and to what extent they should be integrated, but ultimately, it requires decision making at a local level. I know that Cardiff is considering implementing a scheme in Wales, and how that works, I think, will be very important. But there are ways for people to be brought on board with changes, so, as I said, increasing awareness of why schemes like that needs to happen and also what they can bring, going forward. And places that have implemented schemes like that, so Nottingham, has been very successful. That has been in place, the workplace parking levy has been in place for many years. Other areas like Waltham Forest and Ealing in London have implemented road-space allocation, not charging specifically, but they have increased support after it's been implemented, given that people see the benefits of schemes like that once they have been implemented.

Okay, thank you very much. We have around three other areas that we'd like to cover, which gives us probably five minutes for each of those, so I'll allow Jenny a quick supplementary, and then you can take us on to the first of those three.

Okay. Quick supplementary, which is around the push factor posed by the rise and rise of petrol and diesel prices, because Silviya, in your paper, you talk about the way in which the cost of owning a car has risen much less than the cost of travelling by bus or coach, but that was up to 2020. So, surely, in 2022, has the balance shifted to give a kick-start for people to leave the car at home and go by bus to commute to school or work?

Obviously, the price of driving has increased, but still not to the extent of fares, for example. In March this year, we saw the biggest rail fares increase in nine years. I'm hoping that the increase in fuel costs is making people think about what options they have, and that's why I said that promotions and promoting public transport as alternatives would be very important in this context.

Joe wants to come in just quickly as well.

Just to say that, yes, obviously, we're seeing that cars are becoming more expensive, but this is going to freeze more people out as well. We don't want to see everyone shut out from every single type of transport, so I think—. Just to add to that kind of transport poverty piece, I guess, is on that. But, yes, we are seeing more parity, aren't we, in the price of each?

Okay. But nothing you can add to that, David Beer, because, obviously, your focus is on this.

I think that it—. Again, just to echo the points that other people have made.

Okay. All right. Fine. So, just moving on to the Welsh Government's proposal to introduce a Wales-wide franchised bus service. Silviya, in your paper, you express concern about whether the public sector has the expertise, as well as the financial resources. I wonder if you could just elaborate a little bit on that.

The local authority capacity and capability issue, I think, has been raised in the past. We've done some research for the Department for Transport ahead of their publication of a national bus strategy on to what extent authorities have that capacity to implement the reforms required. And that focused on England, so I don't have specific Welsh findings, but all the time, local authority teams that are responsible for that have really diminished in terms of resource, size of teams and capability and expertise, so it's something that needs to be looked at. And the regulatory framework that Wales then implements for moving towards franchising needs to enable every level of government to play its role, together with bus operators, to make it work effectively. It's just one of the areas that needs to be considered going forward.

[Inaudible.]—an earlier evidence session said, 'We have to seize the moment. Even if you don't have the expertise, you have to develop it', as we did when we took over the rail franchise. So, what is your experience, both David and Joe, of the experience in Scotland and England of really using the franchising system to drive the change we need?

I think that we haven't seen enough of that being put in place, particularly. England is going down the route of having bus service improvement plans and enhanced partnerships. We're doing an awful lot of work to support local authorities through that, giving them guidance on setting targets and having things like passenger charters in place. Where we have seen it going into the franchising side is in greater Manchester, for example. And one of the views that we gave to greater Manchester when they were consulting on putting that in place was that, from a passenger perspective, particularly from a financial point of view, we think that an authority underpinning in terms of franchising can give greater stability and probably a bigger safety net to the network in the current financial situation. So, that was one of the things that we said there. Again, the resource and expertise, yes, it is a risk, but I think I agree that we do have to seize the moment and put that into place.

But I think, from a passenger perspective, it's less about the means by which you do that—so whether that's partnership or franchise or whatever—but it has to deliver for passengers. So, the closer that the specifications and the targets reflect people's needs, the better the chance that they'll deliver the types of services that people want, which will be valuable, and will bring in new users to be able to grow the market and support that modal shift.

Okay. So, Joe, do you think that it doesn't matter who actually owns the bus, it's about controlling the objectives?

Yes. Broadly, I agree with everything that everyone's said before, to be honest. Capacity and expertise are an issue, but as long as we're clear that this is going to take a lot of investment—a long-term investment—then, you know, that needs to be considered. But also that, yes, we've supported in principle that Welsh Government, Transport for Wales and local government are in a good position to design services and meet the needs of communities across Wales, and I think that that enables a holistic view of what bus services deliver for people across Wales, and kind of brings it together with all the rest of what Welsh Government are doing in terms of trying to increase modal shift, as well.

Okay. We'll move on to Huw.

Thank you, Chair. Great British Railways: have you got any views on whether this works for Wales, whether it fits with all the things we've been discussing and our reforms, or is it a hindrance? What do you think?

In general, we support the aim of rail reform to create a sense of someone being in overall control, and I think that that's come through our research as well—people expect there to be that kind of guiding mind that takes responsibility. Track and train have been too fragmented for far too long and there's been too much blame-passing between different aspects, different parts of the industry, and that was borne out by the timetable crisis in 2018, when there was a real meltdown and that need hasn't gone away.

It's hard to assess the implications for Wales specifically, because we don't know enough about how devolution will be handled. I think that that's been quite opaque in terms of being able to understand what the plan is. Welsh Government will retain the franchising role, but how that works with the network bit that will be under Great British Railways remains to be seen. And will that still mean a split between train and track? Because knitting track and train together to make it seamless for passengers, it has to give that real attractive network and it has to be something that passengers just find easy to use and something that delivers the services and the basics of the reliable trustworthy services that passengers want at an affordable price, and that is the pull factor that is going to create that modal shift. But that knitting together has to be seamless in order to create that and we're not seeing how that's going to work at the moment.

Thanks. Is there anything else from the other panellists in terms of what we should be saying to Welsh Government about making sure that they advocate for within Great British Railways?

Just to echo David's point, really, about having greater control of investments in infrastructure. At the moment, obviously, it's centred on Network Rail, but having a greater handle on this would improve the Government's ability to make decisions in terms of investment and the running of services. Fares is another big issue that needs to be tackled and a fares reform and simplifying fares is something that we've been talking in great detail to the transition team about.

So, on fares and so on—sorry, Chair, we're up against time—that argues for greater control here in Wales, about knitting together our fares structure, including an element of the devolution of management of fares within Wales.

I'm not sure about the technicality in terms of the devolution arrangements on this, but what we're saying is that there needs to be, across the board, root-and-branch reform of all fares across the country. So, greater simplification and making sure that the differences between operators are reduced. At the moment, we have different levels of discount, for example, between peak and off-peak fares from different operators, so making sure that it's much simpler and coherent and less dependent on where you are, so that passengers understand fares much better.

Okay.

Thank you very much. So, we come to our last area of questioning and I'll invite Janet to lead us on this one.

Thank you. At the end of last year, my Welsh Conservative colleague Darren Millar identified that while south Wales metro was due to receive £1 billion of earmarked funding, the north Wales metro would only receive 5 per cent of this funding, at £50 million. How will this shocking imbalance of funding support help achieve Welsh Government targets of seeing 13 per cent of all trips being made by public transport?

Okay. Well, I don't know if anybody wants to respond to that. It's a question to Government, to an extent.

It is, and I think the disparity in those figures is quite stark in terms of what it will deliver. I think the metro systems and the ability to bring a network together of unified services is incredibly important to deliver a step change in service provision, to provide the attractive networks that we've been talking about today. Yes, new trains, new services have been a long time coming; they will be delivered for the Valleys in particular, but also, north Wales will see those, the Marches line will see those, and the Heart of Wales, the Cambrian. The different lines in Wales will see new trains coming into fruition. How that puts together, in terms of the rail services and the bus services coming together in a metro system, I think people still aren't sure what to expect, and I don't think that narrative has been out there to help them to understand. It's there to a certain extent, but there's scope for much more communication.

I think in terms of putting that out there, it also has to be there in terms of the governance. Yes, those figures are quite starkly different, but how that's being delivered needs to have that expertise, needs to have that governance in place, and it also needs to have that independent representation. Yes, we've been part of the Transport for Wales advisory panel, and the Welsh Government have now got the transport performance board in place, which is a similar body. But some things remain to be seen in terms of how that governance is going to deliver what's being planned for those different metro services. For example, how will the CJCs work together with Transport for Wales, and how will that dynamic work? We don't know, we haven't really seen what that will bring to fruition.

In the buses White Paper, we're seeing that there are proposals for a supervisory board, which, again, needs to be seen in terms of what that's going to deliver for the governance and for the delivery of those services. It needs to have really effective representation of what people want in terms of the users and in terms of everything that we've been talking about today in order to protect their interests and to provide for the independent view coming in. And that needs to be held to account and scrutinised in terms of having open and transparent publishing of performance, as well as the plans to deliver.

Before I invite Joe and Silviya to respond, maybe, Jenny, you could ask the question that you wanted to bring up, and then we can conclude with comments from each of you then.

I think it's about making the modal shift as fast as we need to make it in light of the climate emergency, and whether the metros are able to drive that modal shift in our three main urbanised areas, our main centres of population. So, for example, in the south-east Wales area, we've got the Cardiff capital region, all the local authorities are represented, and therefore you've got the expertise that the local authorities already have to really ensure that we're joining up the dots in terms of where people need to travel. Are you convinced that, based on what you've seen, that is going to deliver what we need, and therefore could be rolled out to, say, north Wales, which is less far down the path?

I think there's a fundamental difference between the authorities that are available in south-east Wales up against north Wales. I think the expertise that was there when the transport consortia were around has been lost. So, to a certain extent, there's some catching up to do and a gap in that expertise that needs to be addressed. I think the coming together in south-east Wales has been really useful and has tied together those different authorities. I think city regions—. So, for example in Swansea, the authorities round there are coming together to start to deliver services in that area. So, there is a lot of work that's being done.

I think there's more to do, but there's a little bit of uncertainty around how that's going to work with the CJCs, for example, because bringing planning together with transport, I think, is an important step. So, there's some value in what they're going to deliver. But also, in the way in which the remit of Transport for Wales is broadening to being more multimodal, they're still going through that transition and that expansion of capability, and that's a piece of work that needs to gain momentum in order to underpin the ability to move into north Wales, for example, and deliver the metro that's intended there.

Thank you very much, David. Briefly, Sylviya, just in response to the metro, then I'll give Joe the same opportunity. Then, we will have to conclude.

I don't have much to add on this, apart from saying that the union connectivity review, for example, and the north Wales commission will be important opportunities going forward to address any imbalances.

That's a good point, yes, absolutely. And Joe, then, finally.

Likewise, I think David has spoken quite authoritatively on this, so not much to add beyond the fact that major infrastructure projects aren't a panacea when it comes to modal shift. I think they have an important role to play, but, equally—

I'm in committee.

Sorry?

Thank you, Janet. There we are. Janet has been muted now. Okay. Sorry, Joe.

But they just need to be integrated with the planning approaches, 20-minute neighbourhoods, ability to access them via walking, cycling and wheeling, rather than being car dependent, because there is a risk you could just have people driving their cars to a metro station and then driving their cars away from a metro station. So, it's all about thinking holistically, but, in principle, yes, they have an important role to play.

Wonderful. There's so much to think about and there's so much that needs doing, but we're very grateful to you for imparting so much information to us as a committee. It's really enriching our deliberation on this. No doubt we'll be chasing you again for more information and, I'm sure, further contributions over the months and years to come as well. But thank you, the three of you, for your presence here this afternoon. You will be sent a draft transcript to check for accuracy, and, all being well, of course, then that will stand as a record of the meeting.

Can I thank Members as well? We'll now break for 10 minutes. I'll invite Members to join us again at 13:40, and then we'll try and start as soon as we can after that for our final session this afternoon. Diolch yn fawr.

Croeso nôl i'r pwyllgor. Dŷn ni'n symud i bedwaredd eitem y cyfarfod heddiw i barhau â'r dystiolaeth ar deithio ar fysiau a'r rheilffordd yng Nghymru, ac rŷn ni'n symud at banel o gynrychiolwyr o'r sector bysiau a thrafnidiaeth gymunedol. Croeso i chi. Gwnaf i ofyn i chi i gyflwyno eich hunain yn fyr, os gwnewch chi, ac fe wnawn ni ddechrau fan hyn, gyda Gemma.

Diolch, Chair. My name's Gemma Lelliott. I'm the director for Wales for the Community Transport Association.

Josh Miles. Director for Wales for the Confederation of Passenger Transport.

Prynhawn da. I'm Jane Reakes-Davies. I'm the managing director of First Cymru Buses and the chair of the CPT in Wales.

Good afternoon. I'm Bev Fowles, vice-chairman of Coach and Bus Association Cymru.

There we are. Good to see the four of you. Thank you for your attendance today. We'll go straight into questions, if that's okay, and I'll kick off and ask you whether bus and rail passenger numbers—. We know they remain below pre-pandemic levels. Is that due, still, to public health concerns, or is there something more fundamental at play? Josh.

Do you want me to start? So, I think, in practice, there are two things going on there. So, there have been fundamental things that have been changing before COVID, and COVID has probably made those changes happen a lot quicker. Things like shift to online shopping, working from home—those sorts of trends that have had an impact on demand for bus services. So, that's definitely a factor that's changed as a result of the pandemic. The other element is around safety onboard and the public health message. We know, for instance, concessionary pass holders are less likely to return to public transport than your average fare-paying passenger. So, there are definitely still concerns there that need to be addressed, I think. In the fullness of time, we've done some modelling, as CPT, and the evidence we've got back suggests we'll be reaching sort of 90 per cent of pre-COVID passenger levels by around 2030 if we carry on on the current trajectory.

So, 2030. Okay. That's a long way away.

Yes, so it's going to be a fairly quick recovery, I think, up until around the 80, 85 mark, although we're not there yet, and then quite a long tail until we get to there. So, yes, that presents a lot of challenges for the sector in terms of viability and for general ambitions around modal shift and climate change and those sorts of things.

From the point of view of the community transport sector, we've seen ridership return to pre-pandemic levels already and, in some places, we're seeing some operators struggling to meet the demand of passengers looking to take up community transport journeys. I think some of that has been—as Josh mentioned, we've had some passengers who use concessionary passes perhaps choosing community transport over mainstream public transport, where that choice is available to them, because they felt safer, they've had additional support, particularly where we've seen a significant number of older passengers and disabled people, where their health has deteriorated as a result of shielding at home and minimal activity, and therefore they've needed an additional level of support in order to be able to travel with safety and dignity. So, the community transport sector has been able to support that and enable that to take place.

I think one of the things that the member organisations within the CTA network are telling us now is there is a concern about the number of journeys that they're having to decline, because they're not in a position to be able to carry the number of passengers that are looking for a service. So, it's quite a stark contrast, I would say, in significant sections of Wales, against the commercial bus network, in terms of what passengers are looking for.

That's really interesting. Okay, yes, Bev.

I think one of the things that will hamper us going forward is the decline in retail in the town and city centres, which is a direct affect of COVID. There aren't as many shops there these days as there were pre pandemic, and our recovery will probably come as that recovers. The challenge is that if that doesn't recover, then there is a big challenge for the bus industry.

Yes, okay, thank you very much. There we are. We'll move on, then, to Joyce.

It's already been touched on there by community transport, but it's about the level of uncertainty in demand and how that is affecting bus and rail travel, and whether you've made any assessment of how we should be looking to move forward.

Who wants to take that?

Shall I start with that one?

Yes, please, Jane.

I think what you're finding, in the urban areas, is it's quite easy to assess the demand, because we can track the numbers. When you're in the outer-urban areas, I think that's where we're becoming quite challenged, and the frequency of travel is quite challenging to work through. Now, we've had to change some of our networks to adjust to demand, and the fact that we've probably faced the most challenging resourcing position the bus industry has ever seen, in terms of driver numbers, and people have, unfortunately, made decisions to leave the industry and seek employment elsewhere because there's more certainty, perhaps, in those areas than there are in others. We work very closely with the local authorities trying to understand what feedback they're having from members of the public around demand, but we are relentlessly just looking to see how the customer behaves, and they have behaved quite differently than we predicted them to.

Okay. Anybody else want to pick up on that? No. Okay. Joyce, was there anything else you wanted to pursue?

No. I was just looking at—. It was about the uncertainty, basically, but I think it's been answered.

The point you make about insufficient numbers of drivers is interesting. It's not one that's been mentioned yet today. I don't know whether's there's any view on that particularly, Bev.

There certainly is. I think the management teams throughout Wales and possibly the rest of the UK have had extremely challenging times with the shortage of drivers caused by numerous reasons. Brexit would be one, where an awful lot of drivers left the area, most of those lorry drivers, but, of course, lorry drivers and bus drivers, coach drivers, they go hand in hand—they've usually got both the licences. Quite clearly, the haulage sector was able to offer far better terms to individuals, and so coach or bus saw a big draft of drivers leaving the industry during the period. Not to put too indelicate a point on it, a lot of drivers didn't come through the COVID period. We did have casualties, there's no doubt about it, and I think certainly a lot of drivers did take early retirement, purely and simply because they were coming to the closing stages of their careers, if you like, and they thought they'd just finish them that much earlier, because COVID was so nasty.

So, I think, yes, certainly, the whole industry has felt the impact of drivers. In my own small company we've just started our own driving school. That would never, ever have been thought of over the last 20, 30 years, that a small 40-vehicle company would decide to have its own trainer bus and its own trainer. But we see it as possibly the only way.

Okay, thank you. Huw wants to come in as well on this.

Thank you, Chair. Just briefly, Josh, I wonder if I can pick up on your point about the 2030 idea of getting back to where passenger numbers are. Why so long? And have you run different scenarios on this to see if anything could be done to change that, and to get us back and above where we were before then?

The modelling was done on the assumption of no big changes, so just to try and understand what the trend is, and what the key factors are there. I've got some of the data here, actually. We presented it at a cross-party group on public transport fairly recently, but the key factors that lead into it are around the types of travel people undertake. Bev mentioned shopping earlier on, for example; whereas before the pandemic an amount of shopping was done online, that went up dramatically during the pandemic. It's come down since, but hasn't come down to where it was in 2019. That then leads to a direct reduction in the number of people who want to travel for shopping purposes. You can see the same for education—more university courses, for example, are delivered online. The same for the workplace and commuting—people are hybrid working. And when you put all of that together, you end up with a mix of external factors that are just complete behaviour changes that prevent people coming back in the same numbers that they did before. So, the pandemic really has been a sort of through-the-looking-glass moment in that respect.

Your question around what could be done to change that—well, I think there are a couple of things, actually. So, the first bit, for the here and now, is addressing that issue of confidence amongst the travelling public, particularly for concessionary pass holders, that travelling by bus is safe to do. One of the things I'd love to see is perhaps Government Ministers getting out and about on the bus network, being seen to do that sort of thing, and show we are in that phase of the pandemic where that kind of recovery is possible.

The second thing is making it clear that public transport is a viable alternative to other means of travel. One of the things we've seen is lots of people stopped travelling during the pandemic, lost the habit, and now we've got to activate the triggers to make them think again about what kind of habits they can change. So, Transport for Wales has got a comms campaign going at the moment. That's good news, but we need to see a lot more of those sorts of things if we're going to start to get into people's way of thinking and start to change their behaviours.

And then the final thing is trying to make bus as a mode of transport much more attractive. We could run those models again in a more attractive environment where you've got investment to tackle things like congestion, make buses quicker, make them more appealing compared to the car, and we might see more positive figures then. But that requires much more concerted action from Government and local authorities, as well as bus companies, to make that a reality, I think.

Before I bring Bev in, I think Joyce wants to raise something as well. Joyce, did you want to pick up on something as well?

Yes, I did. It was just the bus driver training in small companies as an opportunity, perhaps, for some people in an area to learn skills close to home, and whether there's any offer of help from Government or, if there was any offer of help in terms of apprenticeships or whatever else, whether that might aid some of the opportunities that I think perhaps some people might take up.

Okay. Bev.

Just to add to Josh's comments there, I think probably the alarming thing, as far as bus companies are concerned, and I'm sure Jane has experienced the same as us, is that as we came out of COVID, we saw a recovery, but the recovery has gone flat. The reason that is given for it going flat is that so much has changed, and obviously a lot of it is way beyond bus companies' control. So, that's the 2030 bit, because really we don't want to be overly optimistic about how quickly it's going to recover. I think 2030 perhaps can be improved and will be improved, but I think you have to take a sensible attitude to it at the moment, and it's because of the amount of change that we've seen the recovery but the recovery has gone flat. We were expecting a more gradual graph out of COVID. When it goes flat, you do get a bit alarmed.

Yes. Okay. Jane.

As Josh will testify, I've talked about how people's behaviour has changed as part of our CPT discussions. What you would have tended to find when you tracked concessionary passes is that someone who may live in Ammanford, for example, would spend one day visiting Llanelli, one day visiting Swansea, and one day visiting Carmarthen. And across the week, they may have been on the bus four or five times. And what they've actually done now is reduced the number of times they leave and catch buses to probably more like once a week, and I think that's the point particularly around the concessions. I think we've seen a glimmer, but actually when I compare us in Wales to my counterparts in England, we've seen a seed change in the bounce back of concessionary card holders. So, they are the group of individuals who I see have changed more significantly than others.

Going back to the point around the trajectory to 2030, my company is predominantly based in the Swansea area, and what we've seen is the volume of local traffic in that area go up significantly since the pandemic. And I think trying to attract people out of their cars and into buses really needs some support with the local authorities to make the journey times shorter, because that is the only way we will appeal to the car drivers to take them out of their cars and catch a bus. And I'm more than happy, as Josh suggested, if any Ministers wish to come and travel on my buses. I'm sure we'd all support that, having a day where we travel across bus networks and experience it from the realm of the customer and how the customer actually makes their journeys every day.

Yes. Excellent. Okay. I've got a feeling that will find its way into our report somewhere. [Laughter.] Okay. We'll move on now then to Delyth. Diolch.

Diolch, Cadeirydd. Prynhawn da to everyone. In addition to what you've already been saying, and building on that, could you talk us through whether you think the Government's modal shift targets are ambitious enough to achieve the necessary reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, please?

Do you want me to pick up that one first? I think they're really ambitious. I think being ambitious is a good thing, so there's nothing inherently bad in an ambitious target. What's absolutely key is that there is concerted action underneath to make those ambitions a reality. I'm not entirely sure we're at that point yet. I think there's more work to be done to do the sorts of things we need to do to make modal shift attractive, to shift us from that 2030 trajectory that we're on onto a new trajectory.

Jane just gave a really good example there around bus priority measures. Wales isn't particularly good compared to other parts of the UK in introducing bus priority measures. There is a lot of funding for it in England. In Scotland, there's a £500 million bus partnership fund that is there to be used by local authorities and bus operators to target those key corridors that make buses quicker, therefore making them cheaper and more effective and more appealing to the passenger. So, we don't do that at scale at the moment in Wales, and I think that's the sort of thing we need to be looking at if we really want to shift the narrative and make buses more attractive.

I did send you a diagram in my submission around the bus industry's vicious cycle. It's quite simple, really. We can reverse all of those factors when we start to tackle things like congestion, and then the cycle goes into a virtuous cycle and we start to get more people on buses, and modal shift happens.

Okay. Gemma.

I suppose a connected point, really, for me is thinking about the accessibility and the integration of the transport network and how important that is in facilitating that modal shift, because I do think that the targets are ambitious but have got the potential to be achievable, and will make a big difference in terms of achieving those net-zero aspirations. But, as it stands at the moment, the connections between the different modes of transport, particularly for someone who's making the transition from active travel to rail, active travel to bus, community transport to any of the mainstream public transport networks—. There is a disconnection there. There isn't any integrated ticketing at the moment. There are concerns for passengers with additional mobility support needs about their ability to be able to use the other modes of transport smoothly and easily, with dignity and safety. And I think that is something that fundamentally needs to be addressed, if those modal shift targets are going to be achieved.

We need to see—and this is something that I highlighted in my submission to the committee—we need to see every passenger as someone of value. And, as a result of that value of that passenger, and how important it is to be able to support that passenger safely through the different modes of transport, we need to invest in making that system more integrated and more accessible. Therefore, the feasibility of modal shift, I think, will become more realistic.

Thank you. Bev.

I think we have to accept that we have an ancient infrastructure that we are operating on, and that's very difficult for bus companies, and it's very, very difficult to achieve modal shift. The ambitions in the White Paper are admirable, and I think everybody around the table would love to be able to achieve them. I don't think they will be achieved by the dates that are set, which will be a pity, but I think the ambition has to be applauded. How we achieve that with the infrastructure that we work under is going to be very, very difficult, and possibly will need some deep pockets somewhere, because the bus can only go as fast as the car goes in front of it. If we haven't got any priority—and there's very, very little priority in Wales; there's very, very little priority in the UK, to be frank with you, but, in Wales, it's probably even slightly less than the best parts of the UK—. Really, modal shift will only happen if it's more attractive. And it can only be made more attractive if the infrastructure is improved.

Well, the message is clear there. Absolutely, thank you. Okay, we'll move on, then, to Janet.

Thank you. What systems are being adopted to make transport in Wales more affordable for all its citizens, especially when research suggests that 25 per cent of bus users are disabled or have a long-term illness?

Who wants to pick up on that one? Yes, go on, Jane.

I think all of us have considered how we grow our patronage on vehicles. I think there are a number of initiatives we all need to look at in terms of how we attract people onto bus. The concessionary card scheme is very well used in Wales, and does expand to more than other parts of the UK in terms of how it supports people on bus. But, affordability is the priority, I would say, for most operators now, moving forward, particularly as people's behaviour has changed. So, individuals who may have purchased a monthly ticket who aren't using buses as they used to, we need to be looking at options for how we attract people onto bus and make it a viable option for them. In my company, that's something we are currently looking at, and how we make more distance fares relevant to individuals than just flat fares or fixed fares. So, I think we're all trying to prioritise how we grow that patronage back on to bus by looking at ways to be very flexible about our ticketing.

Okay. Cities such as Brussels have demonstrated how key European cities with small populations can continue to prioritise affordability. They have annual travel passes for 18 to 24-year-olds costing only €12 a year, and €499 for adults until the age of 65. This is a question for Welsh Government, but, technically, what do you think, or do you think there's any inspiration that can be taken from other countries on making domestic travel really affordable, in line with other countries in Europe?

Yes, and I think it will be interesting to see the models that are in the UK. Scotland are working very hard at the moment to develop a model for their young people to attract their young people onto buses. And I think, until you make that journey time pertinent to the location people are trying to get to, that is going to be the challenge for young people. They want to get somewhere as quickly as possible. If you look at some of the cities across the UK—. For example, I was in Bristol a couple of weeks ago; most of the young folk in Bristol are on e-scooters now, they're not even catching buses, because, a bit like Gemma said about the active travel, people just really are doing a mile or so, so they'll hire an e-scooter.

So, I think, yes, there is definitely something we need to do for young people, but it's something that is going to be quite challenging for operators to do alone, because you need to do it in a concentrated and large-scale process. When we look at the MyTravelPass that we have in place now, that has been successful and it has attracted young people onto bus that may not have done, but it's one of those things you need to constantly be reviewing and grow that part of the network to make them the future of bus travel.

Jenny, you wanted to pick up.

Yes, I've got two things. One is that one of the people who gave us evidence in our community outreach work was a disabled person in a wheelchair, who said that the bus was constantly just going past. So, what are the rules amongst your operators around the priority given to somebody in a wheelchair over, for example, somebody who's occupying that space because they've got a pushchair? How do you deal with that? And the second point is: how do you ensure that people feel safe on the bus? Harassment on the bus or drunken behaviour—what is the role of the operator, who is obviously a lone worker, or other CCTV-type things you do to ensure that people travelling on your buses are behaving on your buses?

So, predominantly, in terms of the first point of the question, the priority would be to the wheelchair user, and our drivers would do all they can to navigate someone who is in a space that they shouldn't be in or asking them to move. And that can cause conflict. So, our drivers would do all they can to ensure that someone is safe in a wheelchair area.

In terms of the second point, most modern vehicles will have CCTV, and most drivers, if they are concerned about the behaviour of passengers with other individuals, will act, in a safe manner. They can communicate back with our supervisors and managers on a day-to-day basis, and we often will be called upon by the police to review CCTV if there's been any complaint of harassment of a customer on a bus. That's quite—. I wouldn't say it's frequent or common, but it does happen that we will be called upon to provide our CCTV if an incident has occurred.

That's your aspiration, but our witness in the wheelchair said that she was always being bypassed, that the bus would just go on because they couldn't be bothered to—you know, the time taken to actually load the wheelchair user.

Well, I'd be disappointed if that was something that was observed within my company, but, without knowing the specific examples, it's quite hard to quantify that issue. But I would say most times you would find that drivers are supportive and would assist, where they could, a customer to board a vehicle.

So, what do the regulations say? Is it the wheelchair user who has priority for that space?

Yes, it is.

Okay, thank you for that. Bev, on this as well briefly, and then we'll move on, back to Janet.

Yes, I think it is a question full of contention and, as you rightly say, the driver, male or female, is a single worker. The attitudes of some of the public towards the driver in many cases are not pleasant, very disgraceful. I'm surprised that the question has come from a wheelchair user, because I know that Jane's company, and certainly my company, and I'm sure the majority of companies in Wales, have training courses for such eventualities. It's got to be a pretty hard-nosed guy that drives past a wheelchair, I have to say, and I don't know that it's a common occurrence. If the lady would like to get in touch, then I'd be more than happy to investigate for her, because we don't know where it's happened.

Okay. No, you're right. It's difficult when we discuss an individual situation—

Yes, it is.

—but it's clearly unacceptable, whether it's frequent or an isolated incident.

Just to come in briefly on that, that's feedback that we hear from community transport passengers regularly, that the reason they use community transport is because they're not getting the level of service that they need in order to be able to feel safe on the vehicle or even to board the vehicle in the first place. So, north Wales, I know, is a particular bad patch for buses driving past passengers at bus stops, not stopping, because they haven't got enough time in their timetable. Some of that, I think, is down to worries about restrictions from the traffic commissioner and being able to hit those timetable markers and milestones and getting into trouble if they're not able to do that, because it does take time, if you've got an older bus, to unload your ramp and get someone on to the vehicle. But it's something—. I worked for a long time supporting disabled people in person, and that's something that I experienced, supporting wheelchair users particularly, a number of times; it was a real barrier. And that means then, once you've had that kind of access barrier, you are significantly less likely to use the public transport system in future.

Yes, absolutely. Okay, thank you for that. We'll come back to you then, Janet.

To be honest, Chair, the question has actually been asked—

Fine, okay.

—when we talked about electrifying vehicles and then we know the barriers there.

Okay, that's fine. We'll go on to Joyce, then.

In many ways, my question's been answered. But I just want to focus on behaviour change and the modal shift: any thoughts that you might have on the difference, say, between rural and urban, or commuter versus leisure, and any way that we perhaps need to rethink what the offer is in those terms?

I would say rural and urban obviously have quite different contexts for the types of interventions you can make, but, broadly, I think there are two things that we need to do: one is make buses more attractive—so, reduce journey times, make the experience more comfortable, those sorts of measures. But the other bit we haven't spoken about yet, and I think this is actually quite key, is how you discourage car use, because one of the things we see again, when you look at the modelling, is you can make bus really attractive and that has a good impact, but the quickest thing to do to get people out of cars and on to public transport is to discourage car use. There's a spectrum of ways you can do that. In some towns in rural areas, it might be parking charges that provide just enough of a nudge to get people to change their behaviour. In a place like Cardiff, you might talk about congestion charging or you might talk about road user charging, those sorts of things that will change those behaviours, and, really, we need to. If we're going to really think about modal shift, we need to think about all of those issues and come up with the sorts of approaches that can have that right balance of carrot and stick, I think, and we're not quite there with it yet.

Yes, Jane, and then we'll come to Gemma.

It's actually been quite interesting, over probably the last 12 months—and it's a point that Bev raised earlier—that the town centres have been quite depleted in their offering to the community, and how local authorities have dealt with that in many ways is to improve parking charges. And I've had some interesting debates with my local authority partner around how we cannot compete when parking charges are £1 for a day, and it's been an interesting dynamic, because, of course, they're under pressure from the chambers of commerce to attract people into the towns, and we're trying to get people back on to the bus. And that dynamic is really something that we need to consider if we want to drive that modal shift, because that is the way to do it.

I think, actually, when we look at the stats across the patronage of our business, those peaks that we would have had in the mornings and the afternoons aren't there anymore and more people are travelling for leisure and social purposes than they were previously. So, the commuter aspect—and Josh has highlighted the hybrid working and the work at home messaging—that really has changed the way people are using vehicles. And there is a risk there, because what you find is that that group of people were the revenue-producing part of bus travel that goes back into supporting reinvestment in bus travel, versus maybe the social or the concessionary card users who are using the bus at those times. So, it's just one we need to be mindful of in being able to look at how we reinvest in the bus industry moving forward.

I'm conscious Huw wants to come in. Huw, do you want to make a point and then I'll ask Gemma to address a couple of things?

Yes, thanks, Chair. There seems to be a consistent pattern coming across now from all of our evidence sessions of the need to do the whole piece there, including ways to incentivise people to get out of their cars and to incentivise people to get on to public transport, modal shift, and also this point about that it's got to be done strategically, not on a piecemeal basis. But I wonder if any of our panellists would like to comment on something that came up in an earlier evidence session, where it was suggested that, really, in all of our major urban areas—our Newports, Wrexhams, Cardiffs et cetera—you shouldn't really have something that's in any way making it easy for you to get in there by car, you should be actually seeking to use mass transport to go into those cities, and that, mainly, you drive a little bit, you park your car up and you go and you walk to the train station, which takes you into the city or whatever, that, actually it should be shifted entirely the other way, but that might look very different in rural areas.

Gemma.

I think that something that we hear a lot from passengers who live in rural communities, of which there are a substantial number in Wales, is there are significant barriers—say, for example, if you wanted to travel actively to your nearest bus stop or to your nearest transport interchange, to be able to do that puts you at significant risk, because there isn't active travel infrastructure, there isn't a safe pavement, potentially the cycle routes have got barriers, so, if you use a non-standard cycle, it means that you're not able to use that cycle network. That is being tackled by local authorities and investment is being made, but it isn't happening fast enough, and we're still seeing people experiencing barriers to using the national cycle network, which then limits their ability to make those multimodal journeys.

I think something that we would definitely like to see is greater investment in the opportunities to create these more rural and intra-urban transport hubs, multimodal transport hubs, that bring together different kinds of transport to allow people to make more of the journeys that work for them. So, a lot of people we hear from might want to take their child to school, for example, then travel to work. Maybe they call in to an older relative on their way home, pick the child up from school, back to home—all of those kinds of things. The bus system as it works at the moment doesn't really facilitate those kinds of journeys and that doesn't really even get into the realms of active travel either, for the majority. So, to be able to get maybe a community car or a small Fflecsi minibus or a community transport minibus into your local multimodal hub, to then be able to pick up one of the mainstream forms of public transport to be able to make the next phase of your journey, I think would make that a lot more realistic for people. And it would mean then that you wouldn't be reliant on big vehicles; they could be prioritised on the main commuter routes, where you've got lots of people travelling, which need those bigger forms of transport. But having more flexible options that are designed with a community lead, I think, we see evidence of how effective that is.

Newtown, for example, have spent an awful lot of time working in partnership with their community to actually identify what are the needs that they have in that community, what are the potential solutions, and then working in partnership with the community to create things that actually meet the needs that have been identified in partnership with the commercial sector, and it's worked really, really well. So, we'd like to see more of that happening, where there's a blend between the different modes of transport and an appreciation of the different ways in which different kinds of transport bring value into that equation to serve people's needs more effectively.

Thank you for that. Josh.

Yes, just to address Huw's points, I think I agree with what he was saying around urban areas. I think the only point I'd add is that it's more about the mindset change, rather than saying, 'You can do it in urban, but not in rural.' So, I mentioned earlier on that there's a spectrum of things you can do: you can do car parking type interventions in rural areas; that's something that can take place anywhere. You probably can't do bus priority measures into small towns where there's not congestion, because it's not going to have the same impact. But the key thing is getting everyone into that mindset change, where the starting point is not that the car is the way that things happen, it's the public transport is the way that things happen, and the car works around that. So, I would just say that it's not an 'urban, yes; rural, no'; it's more of a spectrum.

And then just to add that we've actually had a live experiment, haven't we, over Christmas, where we had some local authorities do free bus travel or reduced-cost bus travel and others do free car parking, and I think we missed an opportunity there, to be honest, as a nation, to look through that data, to put it into this bigger wrapper and to see what the impact on behaviour was through that.

So, local authorities approach these differently, but we've got a long way to go, I think, to get everyone into the 'free bus travel' kind of column rather than the 'car parking for free' column.

Absolutely. Okay, thank you. Thank you so much for all of that. Before we come on to Delyth, can I just ask, particularly in terms of the community transport sector—we passed over decarbonisation a little bit—is there anything in particular in terms of challenges for your sector particularly, in relation to that agenda?

It's a real area of challenge, I would say. Operators are reporting to us that there's a huge interest in decarbonising the fleet. The community transport fleet in Wales is generally fairly old, well used; we've got lots of vehicles that are 10 years plus out on the roads. We have been able to support some operators to transition to newer Euro 6 models and we've been able to tap into reactive funding opportunities through the local authorities ultra low emission vehicle fund the year before last. We've, through the household support fund, been able to secure some funding in the western Valleys for a project there; they're all going to be electric vehicles, which is really exciting. But it's very ad hoc, it's very reactive. At the moment, the marketplace for the kinds of vehicles community transport operators use is extremely limited. So, we've just submitted a consultation response to the DfT on the aspirations to end the sale of diesel community transport minibuses by 2030 and the challenges that are inherent in that, particularly where—. Because the sector—. There are a lot of volunteer drivers. Some of those will have a full D1 licence; some of them use a standard car licence, so they can't drive the larger minibuses, of which most electric minibuses fall into that bracket.

So, there's a lot, I would say, of challenges that operators are trying to work out how they navigate, and particularly where—. We've got a lot of members who try and fund the replacement of their vehicles through depreciation funds; potentially, they build some of the cost of the replacement of those vehicles into their fares. Because the electric buses or electric cars are so much more expensive, it's really challenging. You can't work to the same timetable as you would have done with a diesel vehicle. Alternatively, you can put your fares up significantly, but it then means you're excluding significant portions of the population; part of the reason a lot of those operators exist is because people can't afford to use other modes of transport. So, you can't put your service on an unaffordable playing field, but, at the same time, you have to find ways of funding the replacement of those buses.

So, yes. It's something I would say—. What we're really keen to see—. The funding structure for the community transport sector, we're really welcoming the opportunity that the recognition of the value of the community transport sector that Welsh Government has given over the last couple of years; what we'd like to see is a preplanned, sustainable funding strategy that will enable the operators to be able to step into that decarbonised space in a more planned way.

Okay, thank you. I thought it was important that we captured that.

Thank you.

Thank you very much. Okay, we'll move on to Delyth.

Diolch, Cadeirydd. Beth ydych chi'n meddwl ydy'r manteision a'r anfanteision o bolisi—wel, syniad nawr—y Llywodraeth o gyflwyno franchise Cymru gyfan ar gyfer gwasanaethau bysus, a beth fyddai'r ffactorau fydd angen cymryd mewn i ystyriaeth er mwyn i'r syniad yma droi yn llwyddiant?

Josh, do you want to go first?

Yes. We could do a whole session on franchising as a topic, to be honest.

We could indeed, yes.

It's such a big proposal, with a lot of detail in it. I think to take the question around advantages and disadvantages, if we start with some of the advantages first, I think the first one would be that there would be a stronger inclination on the public sector's part to invest in bus services, because the risk would sit with the public sector. So, things like congestion we mentioned earlier on; at the moment there's not a huge amount of incentive for the public sector to look to address those things. That might change. I think it would provide potentially less financial risk to operators and a more stable business environment. So, we've just been through the pandemic where there have been huge changes in patronage levels—that will look quite different in a franchised environment. And I think it's a means as well by which Welsh Government can pursue some of their policy priorities, things like integrated ticketing. It's not the only means, I think there are other means you can do that, and that's a conversation that I think we'll be having over the next 12 to 18 months with the legislation, I'm sure, but it is a means to do that.

The disadvantages—I think the big one is going to be the cost of it. A franchising regime is usually quite an expensive undertaking. We did a programme of work to understand how much a franchising regime may cost and, according to our estimations, it's around £61 million extra per year in terms of operating costs for the sector. Now, that could change, depending on the type of model that Welsh Government pursues. So, this is an illustrative example, but it's not a cheap thing to do. And the reason for that is you've got to go through tender exercises, you've got to build up the capacity to tender, you've got to go through contract management, audit, performance management regimes, network planning functions—all these types of things that don't currently exist in the public sector become additional costs. I think there's not a huge amount of incentive on the part of operators to invest in a franchise regime, because you're delivering to a contract, so you customer becomes the transport authority rather than the passenger. So, that's something that needs to be considered.

And the big concern—and I'm sure others will have things to say about this as well—is that franchise regimes are typically quite challenging for smaller operators. Wales is quite different compared to other parts of the UK. We've got a lot of rural areas with a lot of family-owned firms, and I think they will typically struggle to compete in a franchise environment. You have regular franchise tenders going out—bigger companies can create bid teams, can absorb that cost, can pitch in bigger packages to deal with it; SMEs are going to struggle with that, I think. The evidence in New Zealand, where they moved from a deregulated to a franchise market, showed quite a lot of contraction in the SME sector, and the municipal company struggled as well. So, I think we've really, really got to watch that.

There's a lot to unpackage in that. But, you're right, it's a good starter for 10, absolutely, because it helps us identify those key areas. Bev.

I'd like to pick up on a point that Josh has made there. CaBAC is the association that represents SMEs in Wales. There are about 60 of us. We are extremely concerned about franchising, on the basis that history tells us—New Zealand is one example; you have an example much closer, which is London—that smaller operators may well get through the first round of tenders, but they rarely get through the second round of tenders. The paper says 'One network, one timetable, one ticket'; it might also add 'one company', because that is a likelihood. And it may not be any company that's operating in Wales at the moment. So, the small and medium-sized enterprises are extremely concerned about franchising. We do think that there are alternatives. The paper is very weak on how the franchising is going to take place.

I was, in my previous life as a FirstGroup managing director years ago, in the 1990s, in the London area when franchising became the F word and all of London was franchised. And certainly there were some small operators that did manage to get some franchises first time around, but the cost is huge just to put the papers in and to do the work beforehand. I notice that the impact assessment says that smaller companies, urban and rural, could pay anything up to £0.25 million just to submit the tender. And you might not win it. SMEs just cannot afford that, and would not afford it and would stop operating bus services in Wales straight away. It's not a sum that you can build back into your tender. So, it's very difficult. It will be difficult. I can see some of the benefits in franchising, but I think that there are disbenefits as well, and certainly to the smaller companies.

Thank you, Bev. Huw wants to come in.

Thanks, Chair. One of the benefits of running a whole day of sessions hearing evidence is that you get different views. I just want to push back to you what we heard earlier this morning, in an earlier session, where I raised exactly this issue, that it could squeeze out smaller companies and it would lead to larger oligopolistic style ones in a region, with two or three, four or five big players. The point was put back to us that you can get around this; it's not the case that in every European model that uses franchises, the smaller players are squeezed out, and that clever procurement can play a part. Now, I have heard this argument in different sectors played out before: clever procurement can make sure that all players are within it. But, you wouldn't accept that.

In the debates that will follow, we obviously have some ideas to give to procurement people. They hold the key, actually, in either creating a multi-company ambition that will be satisfied by Welsh Government—. I think franchising has one big weakness, and there is good practice in Wales, lots of good practice throughout Wales, a lot of it with small operators, some of it with larger operators, but there is a danger with franchising that the baby goes out with the bath water. And that has to be avoided, I think, at all costs, because Wales is such a diverse country—even though it's a small country, it's a diverse country—with diverse needs and they all have to be met, and I think franchising may well not achieve that.

Okay. Thank you, Bev. I've got half an eye on the clock now—we've got to that stage. Both Jane and Josh have indicated that they'd like to come in, so very, very briefly, if you would, and then we'll move on to Jenny.

Just to say, I agree with you, Huw, that it's something that could be overcome with a lot of thinking. I don't think we've had that thinking yet. I worked for the Federation of Small Businesses, as you know, for 10 years, and spent an awful lot of time talking about clever procurement, and not much time seeing it happen in practice, to be blunt with you. So, if we can crack that holy grail, then fantastic, but I think let's not be naïve and walk into it without doing the leg work that we need to on that one.

Thank you. Jane.

Just something very quick. I think we just have to have eyes on what the customer wants. And if you've ever travelled across the London bus network and you're heading for your destination and then hear those fateful words, 'This bus is curtailing here', sometimes the priority is hitting the target of the time of the journey rather than the needs of the customer. And I think that we really need to consider what the customer in Wales wants and whether we can do it another way, rather than automatically considering franchising.

Excellent. Okay. Thank you so much for those comments. Jenny.

Right. I wanted to ask about the Welsh Government's 'Bws Cymru' strategy, and I want to use it in the context of how we're going to reverse the vicious circle. How are we going to use the carrots and the sticks to achieve our ends, given that the Welsh Government doesn't have the fiscal firepower of the UK Government? We simply don't have those levers, so how are we going to get the carrot and the stick of getting car users to use other modes of transport, and if they insist on doing the wrong thing, then they're going to have to pay extra for it? How are we going to do that and does the 'Bws Cymru' strategy contain any glimmer of hope in that regard?

I think that 'Bws Cymru' has lots of the right areas in it. My big concern, to be honest, with 'Bws Cymru' is that it's saying the right things, but we need to make sure that it's delivering the right things as well, and at the moment, we're not in a delivery space with some of these priorities. So, to give you a practical example, one of the things that's in 'Bws Cymru' is partnership working with operators, local authorities, Welsh Government, passenger bodies, et cetera, and the truth is that we haven't got as far down that track as we would like to. Other areas of the UK do quite a lot in that area. We haven't got any resource from Welsh or local government to put into that pot, and operators then can't come to the table with ideas for how to make things better and start to address those things. So, I think the gap we've got is one of delivery at the moment. There's another area in there: that's action plans, which sounds fantastic, but again, it's an easy thing to create a bus action plan, but it's a much harder thing to turn something into delivery, and I think that's really where we've got problems.

Local authorities don't have much by way of staff or resources to put into the process at the moment. I think we've got a lot of governance in the bus sector between local authorities, CJCs, TfW, Welsh Government, metros, and I know we'll perhaps touch on those later. So, there are just a lot of things going on and we haven't quite got the coherence or the investment to deliver things yet, I don't think.

Okay. How much of it is down to—? Bev, you were talking earlier about it costing £0.25 million to submit a franchise bid. How much is that down to not having the data? Because, obviously, these things everybody carries, they tell you the journeys that people are doing, but we don't have open access to that information, which we need to, without—.

I think the industry and Government are working on that on a tap-on, tap-off basis, which will give us masses of information that we haven't got at the moment, and haven't had through the last three or four decades. It is innovative, that, and I think it will be rolled out in the next 24 months. And then we can analyse exactly where people go and what travel patterns are. At the moment, we're at the behest of the passenger to tell us what his or her travel pattern is, and that may be different tomorrow, as we alluded to just now, with 'Perhaps we'll go to Ammanford, perhaps we'll go to Llanelli, perhaps we'll go elsewhere.' So, I think technology is going to have to be stepped up here to help us to at least gain information.

Now, we've been supplying Welsh Government for the last 24 months with all our revenues and all our passenger numbers during the whole period, and obviously prior to the pandemic, so that they've been able to compare pre pandemic and as we come out of the pandemic. So, the Welsh Government know exactly how much the current network costs to operate. They know. Now, whether you've got deep pockets or whether you haven't got deep pockets, there is an element that must tell them how much of that network they want to support and how much, perhaps, they don't want to support, if they want to start somewhere. So, the figures are there and are being compiled, and the more figures you get, the better the compilation, the better decisions you can make. I don't think we're there yet, but I think in the next 24 months we will be.

Jane and then Gemma, and then we will have to move on, I'm afraid.

And I would say, Jenny, there is a lot of data there already. What I would say, though, is that it's not consistent across the whole of the operation, as Bev said. But, actually, we know where the customers are already; we don't always know where they alight, but there is a lot of information that we could already be pulling on to make those decisions. And we've said, in the last 24 months we've supplied everything about all our operations, so there's probably more information than we really need to make some of the decisions we need to, moving forward.

Okay. Gemma.

I think, for me, from the point of view of the community transport sector, we've been recognised as a sector in the 'Bws Cymru' plan for the first time. It's the first dedicated attention that Welsh Government has given to community transport in about two decades. So, that's been really positive, and we've really seen that difference in terms of how Ministers and officials are engaging with the sector and recognising the value of what it brings to the table.

I think the exciting thing—. It feels like I've read the White Paper and 'Bws Cymru' perhaps a little differently, looking at the opportunities that franchising presents. We are quite excited by the opportunity for local and regional networks to actually feed in data about the journeys they want to make, rather than the journeys that they are permitted to make by the way the system works at the moment. So, when you receive data about passenger journeys, obviously it's dictated by what is available. So, it might be that someone will travel into a town centre and then back out on another bus, because that is the only route for them to make that journey. What a lot of people tell us is they'd like to be able to travel from valley to valley or from town to town, but that system doesn't exist at the moment. So, having more local and regional expertise feeding in to the development of those networks, on a local or regional basis, hopefully would assist operators in designing services that actually meet people's needs and get them where they want to go, rather than—.

I suppose, we really welcome the aspiration of delivering public buses and an integrated public transport network as a public service, rather than something that is driven by the totally rational aspiration that you need to make money. If you're are operating a commercial organisation, you need to make a profit, and that shift, I suppose, from our point of view as a sector, is a really welcome one, because that's something that the community transport sector has tried to do since its inception: to deliver services that meet people's needs. Hopefully, if more of the network was able to do that, then there would be less of a need for the kind of community transport operator that exists at the moment. I'm sure some of my members would be very unhappy with me saying that—

I was going to say, you're talking yourself out of a job. [Laughter.] Yes, but you make the point very well.

What we would like to see is more people being able to make proactive choices that work for them, and at the moment, the system doesn't allow for that. So, we would hope that Welsh Government's aspirations and what they're setting out in these papers will allow for more of that happen.

Excellent. Okay, thank you very much. Huw.

Thanks, Chair. Just one final question, and it is to Gemma, and you've partly answered this, because I get from your answer the excitement around being engaged now within Wales transport policy for the first time in years as a serious player, embedded within it, thinking through it. But it's not universally the picture across Wales at the moment, from my experience. I see the good and the bad there. How far off do you think we are from this much more integrated focus on the end-user scenario that you describe in places like Newtown and others? And are you confident, from everything that you've said, that, as the Wales transport strategy is taken forward, as regional focus is taken forward, and more, if you like, democratic input into how you serve transport users is done, that the community transport sector is really going to be taken on board with this, as opposed to being a sort of extra bit player at the edges?

I think that's a really fair question, and something that I know we're very mindful of is the fact that we don't have universal coverage of the community transport network across Wales. We've got significant parts of the country where there are no community transport operators. Some of that is because services have been forced to close because they haven't been funded sustainably and, therefore, they haven't been able to keep running. Some of it is because there wasn't a need as a result of a more thriving public transport network, and that has shifted and, therefore, now we have gaps in the network. Some of it, I would say, is because we have some operators where they've been meeting a particular customer group's need for a long time and, therefore, their services are designed around meeting that need, and now people's needs are changing. So, something that we're looking at in north Wales, for example, is that there's a group of people with learning difficulties that want to be able to go out at the weekends and in the evenings. There is no public transport provision for that, there is no community transport provision for that. So, we're trying to work on how we can support the operator network to grow and be enhanced to meet more of the needs of people that want to travel.

We feel, at the moment, really buoyant about the way in which Welsh Government is engaging with the sector and the seriousness with which it is taken. I think the fact that we've been able to get involved in delivering things like some of the Fflecsi pilots, and versions of the Fflecsi pilots, has been really welcomed. There was some frustration from the network in the early days of those pilots being developed that, potentially, that money could have been invested in the community transport network rather than a new pilot being developed, but I think the sector is taking the opportunities where they find them to try and demonstrate the value of what community transport brings. But I think the key thing for me, really, is about that wider value. A community transport journey is not so much about travelling from A to B, it's about that person's engagement with the mode of transport and a group of people that really understand their value and support them appropriately to make the connections that they want to make, wherever that might be.

Thank you so much. Crikey, there's a lot of stuff coming through today, I have to say. There is one other area of questioning that I think we should cover. I know we're out of time slightly, but, Jenny, if you want to just take us on to this final one. It is important.

I think it's really going on from the earlier conversation, and it is how the three Welsh metro projects can help contribute to the modal shift that we have to have, because we've got a climate emergency, and whether the delivery to date has been effective to actually get us there much quicker.

If I can answer that, then, and draw back on my previous comment, I think the problem with the metros at the moment is they're entirely rail focused. So, there's not a huge amount of discussion, certainly, that I'm aware of. Others around this table might have more to offer in terms of how other modes of transport fit into the metro. I think that's a problem because quite often we're designing rail solutions to tackle problems that might be better served by another mode of transport, so we've not got that holistic look at transport across the board.

I actually think this is a problem with transport governance in Wales in its entirety. If you think about all the different things we've got involved at the moment, we've got local authorities with statutory transport powers, we've got corporate joint committees that are in the process of being formed but are not yet established, have no resources, yet are being spoken about in the bus legislation as a key player. So, they're yet to be determined. We've got metros on the same footprints, we've got TfW, which itself has a regional agenda, from what I gather from a presentation I was at recently, and then we've got Burns commissions north and south that also are specifying regional interventions, and none of these things are holistically looking across the board at what transport should be, and that governance is too complicated, I think.

If you look at how it's done in other places, even if you look in a UK context, you tend to have joint transport authorities, as we would have in the Welsh legislation, or combined authorities that have a statutory responsibility to deliver transport plans and to deliver on those, and they're resourced as such. I think we've just got too many actors at the moment and it's a bit confused. So, if we want to pull the metro and get it right, we need a properly resourced regional body, and that we're given the tools and the funding to do it and say, 'Here's the metro. Look at it multimodally. Deliver it.'

Okay. Bev, and then we'll come to Jane and Gemma then to conclude.

I think metro south-east is obviously under way, but nobody's talking about metro south-west—Jane? No. Nobody. And I think now's the time we should be talking about and advancing ideas and getting operators on side—rail, tram, bus, getting us all on side now. We should be meeting regularly, because if metro south-west is going to start taking place, I don't know, 2028, 2029, 2030, and we are talking about modal shift at the same time, then now is the time that we all should be planning for that, and that's when we should all be talking about it. There will be lessons to be learnt from metro south-east, no doubt about it. It's rail based, basically. I don't think that will happen in metro south-west because I think the infrastructure problems would be far, far too great for it to be entirely rail—it would have to include bus. But, we're not talking about it, and we should be talking about it on a regular basis now.

Thank you. Do you want to add anything, Jane?

I was going to say that there is a slight risk in some of the proposals on the south-west consultation that it actually duplicates some already-established bus services. So, something will then be worse for the customer in the south-west example.

YI would say the same, really. We've had some really positive conversations with team members in TfW about where the opportunities are for community transport to connect and integrate with metro, but it has been reactive and as a result of us probing to find out where the opportunities are. It feels like with something that's so fundamental and so important to the development of the transport network across the country that every mode of transport should be involved in what that needs to look like and how communities can be engaged with, actually, again, thinking about what's going to work for them and what they need to meet those needs. I feel like at the moment we've got individual officers that are taking that really seriously and are pushing and engaging, but then that isn't consistent, and, as Josh has said, it has not necessarily got that more holistic overview, and that would be really welcomed by the community transport sector.

Iawn. Gyda hynny, gaf i ddiolch i'r pedwar ohonoch chi am eich tystiolaeth? Rŷn ni, fel rôn i'n dweud yn gynharach, wedi cael cyfoeth o dystiolaeth yn y sesiwn yma ac yn y sesiynau blaenorol, felly diolch o galon i chi am hynny. Mi fyddwch chi, fel dwi'n dweud wrth bawb, yn cael copi o'r trawsgrifiad drafft jest i tsiecio ei fod e'n gywir a'i fod e'n adlewyrchiad teg o'r hyn rŷch chi wedi'i rannu gyda ni heddiw, ac, yn amlwg, mi fydd yna lawer mwy o drafod wrth i ni fynd i'r afael â'r ddeddfwriaeth rŷn ni wedi cyfeirio ati a meysydd eraill hefyd dros y misoedd a'r blynyddoedd i ddod. Felly, diolch yn fawr iawn i chi, y pedwar ohonoch chi.

Wrth i chi adael, fe wnawn ni gario ymlaen gyda'n pwyllgor. Felly, gwnawn ni symud at eitem 5, sef papurau i'w nodi. Ac os ydy Aelodau'n hapus i nodi, mae yna nifer o bapurau, o 5.1 i 5.10, i'w nodi gyda'i gilydd. Ydych chi'n hapus i wneud hynny? Diolch yn fawr iawn.

Felly, mi symudwn ni at gynnig o dan Reol Sefydlog 17.42(vi) a (ix) bod y pwyllgor yn penderfynu cwrdd yn breifat am weddill y cyfarfod, os yw Aelodau'n fodlon. Ydych chi'n fodlon gyda hynny? Dyna ni. Iawn. Diolch yn fawr. Mi arhoswn eiliad, felly, tan i'r darllediad ddod i ben ac i ni symud i sesiwn breifat.