This is a really big question. Maybe if we try and break it down a bit and start with a simple answer and then I'll explain the rationale for my simple answer.
So, is it achievable? I think the answer has to be 'yes'. And has COVID made any difference? This might shock you, what I'm about to say—I would say 'no', not in a real sense. And the reason for that, particularly for Wales, is, if you look at the proportion of transport that is carried out via public transport in Wales compared to somewhere like London, we are very low. Public transport is always in the margins. Public transport and active travel, even, are in the margins, and therefore even if 20 per cent of travel completely disappeared as a result of COVID, by simply doubling our market share, which is very low to start with, we will more than make up for that travel that has disappeared. That is very different from somewhere like London, where nearly all travel is on public transport in the first place. So, I think that is something that is really important for people to remember, and there's a lot of stuff that is written in the mainstream media that is basically written about London and that is not referenceable, I don't think, to lots of other parts of the UK.
So, the numbers say that, if it was achievable before, it's achievable now. I think the analysis that we have done suggests very strongly, actually, that if we are to meet any of the climate change targets that the UK Government and the Welsh Government have, then, unless someone else is going to massively over-achieve against their targets, it's essential that we do hit those targets. In terms of hitting them, though, I think there are a number of aspects to consider here, and I'll try not to drill into too much detail and try and keep it reasonably strategic. The first one is that we need to provide a set of product offerings that people want to use and that people are able to use, and that's maybe easier said than done.
The second is that I think, even with all of the positive carrots, if you like, that we can offer, there will probably also be a need for some—I don't really like to use the term—sticks to encourage people away in some instances and at some times from the private car. That needn't be through mechanisms like road pricing, albeit some form of sustainable vehicle like that might be helpful, but there would be other ways of discouraging people from using the car whilst encouraging people to use public transport.
Then I guess the third part of all of that for me is that—and this is the real challenge for TfW—we need to be using the resources that we have, which are obviously constrained, in the most effective way to move people efficiently. One of the things that is a bit distressing at the minute is that typically on a Sunday on the Marches line we are already over capacity. When we bring our new services in in the future, with a 65 per cent increase in capacity, yes that's going to solve the problem, but my view is that that will fill up quite quickly as well. So, the thing that I'm beginning to think about now is what is the sustainable model for the level of growth that we want to see on public transport. As part of that, I think we need to, in a sustainable way, get our cost base down a bit. Lots of people before me would have said things like that, but lots of people before me weren't in a climate change emergency, I guess.