8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Wow, okay. [Laughter.] Thank you so much. There will be a transcript available for you to check for accuracy, but thanks again for your time. And we'll take a short break now to reset the room. Thank you.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
We'll let you get off to bed. There we are.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Thank you very much, and thank you so much for your attendance this morning. It's always interesting to have you here and to go through your analysis. Thank you very much to Professor David Miles from the other side of the world as well this morning. Thank…
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Thanks for that diversion. Sorry, it was just interesting to query that. Back to Sam.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
There may have been. Okay. Sorry, you were about to say something, Richard.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Has any analysis been done on the border with Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland? Because, obviously, there are two different tax regimes there as well. Just out of interest.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Sorry, do you do much analysis or forecasting around that behavioural aspect of taxation—so, cross-border behaviour, maybe? Because it's something that we as a committee are interested in, especially with Welsh rates of income tax, compared to maybe Scotland…
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Okay. Thank you.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Right. So, otherwise, you try and smooth out the curve, and, if they happen, they're nearly a bonus, in effect, in income, rather than trying to forecast that volatility.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Because it's predicting one event sometime in the future.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
With that aspect, I'm just interested in how you would go about—. How good is your data gathering, I suppose, in knowing these events, because they're quite significant purchasing events? How is your data gathering able to inform your forecast, or is it just…
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
I'll bring Sam in now. Thank you.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Thank you very much. Mike Hedges. There we are, thank you.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
In social care, for example.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
But then would that assume that those rises were passed on to the third sector providing those services, through into local government and then onto those contracts, rather than it going into, potentially, those departments and being used in different ways?
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Just thinking back to the NIC contributions and that make-up of the Welsh economy, with a significant part in the public sector, then you've got a real chunk of the economy where you've got the third sector heavily involved, and that impact of national…
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Tom.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Mike.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
I think it'll be of great interest to this committee as well, going forward. Thank you. I'll move on now to Mike Hedges. Mike, I'll bring you in.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
And is that analysis work that you've decided to do yourselves, or is that something that's been commissioned by either Government or somebody else?
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
And is that data freely available to you? Are you able to—? Do you have that granularity?
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
What impact does the freezing of thresholds to 2029 have on that? Because obviously that increases the receipts, but then has more of a negative effect on people in lower income sectors, similar to what Sam was talking about earlier.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Okay.
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
And that medium term is 2028-29, or—?
8 Ionawr 2025 , Finance Committee
Cyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru 2025-26: Sesiwn tystiolaeth 2
Is it public sector spending? Or what's having the biggest effect there to mitigate, I suppose, what we've just been talking about?
